Tick - I'm almost always at only the spring sticking out and having a good burn. That's what I call "50%". At 50%, I'm getting ~1 hour until the wood is down to coals, and usually the stove top is cooling rapidly.
I use your "look straight down over the ashlip" for 3 months now, and as soon as the fire is good and stable I shut the air until I can only see coils. Then I nudge it back 1-2 coils at a time.
I've been using your method - what I'm thinking is that I need to use it faster. I.e. only coils is fine, but once the fire is established on a good coal bed shove it down to the rod and a few coils hidden right away.
Also, like you are saying, I think I need to let the heat of the coals supply me for awhile longer.
Lastly, my best results (seriously) have been with like a 3" thick ash bed and a 2" thick coal bed on top of that. Usually the firebox is half-full of ash and coals, and at that point anything I stick in there is going to secondaries VERY fast and allowing me to choke it down too.
I get the fastest cold starts on an empty firebox, but the best burns on a firebox 1/2 full of ash and coals. Who knew
Joe