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oil up 35%, pellets up at least 40%, still good to invest in pellet?

Post in 'The Pellet Mill - Pellet and Multifuel Stoves' started by lmei007, Jun 16, 2008.

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  1. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Of course, I would not expect anything less.

    Take a Lou Dobbs poll like this....

    Should we send out helicopters to drop $100 bills and free drugs from the sky?

    I bet it will win 10 to 1 or more........

    They should drop all this BS and take some time to implement a serious long term energy policy, not something thought up in two days by a McCain adviser from Texas.

    BTW, try a poll of Floridians........they are against it, and will push back hard. I've been to pristine beaches and I've been to industrial beaches, and I can assure you that pristine beaches are nicer.

    Polls mean nothing......

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  2. Turbozcs2003

    Turbozcs2003 New Member

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    Typical all or nothing logic.

    Say you have common sense and allow drilling 40 miles off shore?? How will that impact beaches??? Why all the hate assuming drilling will pollute?? That is a lazy answer, because all these folks who claim that cannot back it up.

    BTW this pol is in maine where we have more democrats 10 to 1 versus unregistered/independants(me) and republicans.

    Oh, Nancy Pelosi promised lower gas prices two years ago, guess we should blame her since she controls the House and all legislation which goes thru committee and floor to vote.
  3. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Aren't we already drilling 40 miles offshore?

    I read that there are hundreds of working oil platforms off of LA.........in fact, over 100 of these were damaged and put out of commission by Katrina. I don't suppose that "non existent" platforms could be damaged?

    A bill passed in 2006 opened 8 million ADDITIONAL acres in the Gulf for exploration and drilling.

    I just don't get it.........we are already exploring and drilling at our capacity and there are millions of OPEN and LEASED acres not even touched yet, but yet you are going to solve something by opening more. Sorry, does not compute.

    Asking people in Maine about whether they want cheaper oil is like asking Amy Winehouse if she wants another toot of coke. Last time I heard, the drilling is not taking place off the coast of Maine. Maybe your state should builds a couple hundred wind farms....take a poll on that.
  4. humpin iron

    humpin iron Feeling the Heat

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    FYI: Pellet prices are about the same as 3-4 yrs ago. Whats changed is the price of moving the pellets (trucking). 4 yrs ago there were 90 mills in North America, today there are over 200. I make $20 on a skid of pellets, nobody is gettin rich off pellets at the retail level.
    Also the price of steel to make stoves a year ago was $625 per ton, today that same ton sells for $1300. Thats why stoves are going up.
    In my 30 years in this business I am proud to say that for the most part-most players in this game DO NOT **** and pillage at a time like this
  5. ducker

    ducker Feeling the Heat

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  6. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    In this thread we can see a microcosm of Washington. On one side, we'll tax our way out of it (hit those big bad oil companies hard). On the other side, we'll drill our way out of it, environment be d@mned.

    It is small-minded to reject solutions the other side has proposed out of hand and believe that there is one solution to this issue, the one solution that you personally believe to be right. I am guilty of this more often than not.

    I see politicians on TV saying things like "gee, if we drill offshore now, we might see a benefit in 5-10 years and that benefit will only be marginal to start with, so that proposal isn't going to help". To that I reply -- gee whiz, you admit that drilling offshore (like many countries do) will help us, even marginally, to get us somewhat off Saudi oil? Why were you not pushing this piece of the overall solution 5-10 years ago (or more) instead of pushing the current program you were pushing, that has failed, or pushing no program whatsoever? You, congressman, lack either vision or the ability to get things done. Which is it?

    You can make the same argument for hybrid-electric cars. Or pellet stoves. Or solar. Or wind. Why bother with them? In the grand scheme of things, in the next 5-10 years, these "solutions" will realistically have a very, very small impact on our overall dependance on oil. So why bother with any of them? They don't bring relief at the pump today and cannot deliver it in the near term.

    Same can be said with those that reject to regulation of our oil industries out of hand. No, I'm not proposing that our government run oil. But anyone with a clear mind cannot look at the issue and conclude that the current situation with big oil is sustainable or proper, real americans are getting bent over and we're seeing record profits.

    Truth be told, we need our president to stand up and say something like "in 20 years, this nation WILL BE ENERGY INDEPENDENT. That is our charge and our goal and we are going to achieve it, starting today, all solutions are on the table so long as they help us achieve the goal of independence. Starting this year, all current subsidies, energy tax breaks, rebates, and aid is going into developing our existing natural resources and new sustainable technologies in order to achieve this. Our bipartisan task force will be headed by XXXXX and in the next 3 months, they will outline our plan to you. Our benchmarks are to achieve X by X date, Y by Y date, and Z by Z date. We will hold public quarterly updates on our progress against these benchmarks until this goal is achieved. This task force is accountable to me and to the American people, if we do not achieve them, I will hold accountable the people on the committee and expect you, the American voter, to hold them and myself accountable to this goal. This nation needs every citizen on board with this effort, it will not be easy but it is attainable".

    Think that would get some people's attention? Brazil has accomplished this. I wonder why we cannot.
  7. sinnian

    sinnian Minister of Fire

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    Sadly your sarcasm was and will be lost on those who support our current administration. They must believe in the tooth fairy too.

    Last time....... IT IS NOT A MATTER OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND! IT IS A MATTER OF SPECULATION, AND IF AND WHEN ANY OIL COMES OUT OF THE GULF OIL PLATFORMS, THAT OIL WILL BE SPECULATED ON TOO. THUS GAS WILL NOT BE ANY CHEAPER.

    Now somewhere in here someone commented on Venezuela's $.30 / gallon gas. Well that is gas that goes from A to B. The speculators do not have a chance to affect that price. It is not on the market to be traded, etc. etc.
  8. kilarney

    kilarney New Member

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    Brazil isn't really energy independent. They have to import certain types of petroleum products. It's just that they export as much as they import. So they consider themselves to be energy independent.

    Brazil also has a much warmer climate for growing crops that make ethanol more efficiently.

    Nonetheless, I agree with your argument.
  9. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    What do you believe speculators are speculating on, specifically?
  10. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    Correct. They are in an enviable position, I believe that they export more energy than they import.
  11. Jerry_NJ

    Jerry_NJ Minister of Fire

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    Craig, you seem to believe on the one hand there is no capacity to increase drilling, and on the other it will bring an end to the environment, a popular view in Mass it seems.
    You also state: "...in fact, over 100 of these were damaged and put out of commission by Katrina. I don’t suppose that “non existent” platforms could be damaged?" but somehow miss the point there were no oil leaks or environmental damage due to Katrina, we know how to build safe oil drilling platforms, and I bet they have less risk of catastrophic oil spills than do (have) large oil tankers needed to ship us oil from far away.

    I am a bit tired of those who complain the oil companies have land/water to drill on, why don't they drill there? Let me guess: there is no known oil in those location, they want to drill where their multi million dollar investment has some hope of producing a return. You can be sure if we let government take over drilling they'll spend millions of tax dollars drilling dry holes and patting themselves on the back for being so diligent on using available land. He[[ they can drill on my property for only 1 million, if I can get a zone variance :) That should make Gore (democrats) happy, to see big oil drilling on dry ground, well not really I've hit drinking water here.
  12. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    I'm not saying platforms leaked during Katrina, just pointing out that we are massively drilling offshore already. You can also read into that to expect giant spikes in price whenever hurricanes approach those areas.

    Again, to be very clear, my position is that we are already drilling massively.....the oil companies usually do not build rigs, they are provided by third parties and take years to build...

    It's not a matter of two "sides" of the debate, since one side (lots of drilling domestically) is taking place this very moment. So there is really nothing to debate on that end! The real question - and hopefully the debate, will be as gw2 above says "When are we going to implement a 20 year plan?".

    This is not done in two days, as the talking heads would have you believe, but I guess if we can have fast food, drive up banking and even drive-up churches, we can have "instant" energy policy also.
  13. Turbozcs2003

    Turbozcs2003 New Member

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    Jerry

    you bring out a good point. Many in congress use the excuse that the BAD oil companies( note I feel our US based, 401K investor owned i might add) are not drilling on 68 million acers of leases becasue maybe there is no oil there or none which can be extracted at an economical price.

    Too many think they will simply drill willy nilly off there nice beach and spill oil every where. The reality is they will do studies and what not and only sink wells where they have a realistic chance and I am sure will do so in a environmentally responsible fashion.
    This country has the technolgy and the best people to do this.

    I agree that we need a near term and longer term plan but I have more confidence in the free market to come up with the solutions rather than the goverment. The goverment is the problem. If we got rid of the not in my back yard attitude we could bring more hydro(environmentalist block these because of fish spawning), wind turbine(get the Kennedys out of the way;)) and nuclear. Things like that but again to many barriers put in place by goverment.
  14. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Every bit of the market is speculated on!

    Examples - pipelines, oil tankers, refiners, drilling rigs for land, platforms for ocean, etc.

    Heck, I'm a little guy and I am constantly speculating on this stuff. But it is not simple stock speculation which is driving the current run-up in oil prices. It is somewhat similar to what caused the Great Depression - that is, low Margin Requirements. Most of the oil being bought and sold is ONLY to make money on the spread - not to actually be delivered and used. People can control large amounts of oil with relatively little cash. They can also hedge their bets, meaning they have little to lose. The loser ends up being the person who consumes the product.....and these traders are laughing at you and me just the same way they laughed at the poor old people in California when they cut off electricity there and overcharged them.

    There seems to be mistaken idea that domestic production would cost less than other oil....to the end consumer. Not only is that completely false, but the reality is probably the opposite! Oil costs less than $5 to get out of the ground in the middle east (bbl), while it can cost as much as $20-$30 or more here. Bottom line is that drilling any more than we already are (and plan to) is not only impossible and impractical, but it will not lower the cost even one cent. It is a band-aid solution, but then again that is just right for the short attention span of most Americans.

    Want cheaper domestic oil? Hey, since most oil is produced on PUBLIC land, tell your government to set a cap at which domestic oil can be sold......just like electric and gas utilities! But I doubt we will hear any backers for that........it is messing around in the "free" market.

    In a time when the final invoice for the Iraq debacle will be $10,000 for each man, woman and child.....in the USA....it might help to reflect on how much oil each of us could buy with that!
  15. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Here are just some Enron conversations - they are going on today also, but under different corporate names:

    "OK, he, um, illegally abrigates, sucking every possible penny from any and everyone in California no matter how poor, no matter how elderly, no matter how sick, to the tune of a million bucks or two a day."

    "Better. Who’s he?"

    "Well...not Lay or Skilling...wink-wink."

    "They make Halliburton business practices look legal."

    (Pause. Hysterical laughter)

    "I’m only kidding."

    "How can we get away with a f***ing mugging of a state’s treasury without someone getting wise? I mean, we’re stealing aren’t we?"

    Stealing? Nah. It’s f***ing capitalism, man. First we manipulate the energy flow, they start rolling black outs, prices go up and then we capitalize on it. That’s why they call it capitalism. Stealing is when you get caught."

    "You sure?"

    "Look. It’s all about denial. People say there might be a problem and we just deny it. Ooh, look. I just turned off all the street lights in Compton. BAM! Yeah! Y'see, people have faith in big business. We're like the rich uncle who you don't diss because you don't want to be written out of the will.

    "What will?"

    "Sh-h-h."

    "But won’t the Governor see through it?"

    (Laughter)

    "Governor Gray Out? You think anyone’s going to listen to that stiff? The f***ing public is already blaming him for the shortage. Heh-heh. I said shortage. You’d have to have a f***ing movie star running before anyone in this state would pay attention to anything they’re saying in Sacramento.
  16. Turbozcs2003

    Turbozcs2003 New Member

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    I would be all for some drilling and I live 1 mile from the ocean. We could use the jobs up here.

    Per the windmills many up here want them and we have some at Mars Hill. They are proposing more but are being blocked by the nimby crowd who claim they could harm bats and birds and what not. They, locals dont want their views of the mountains impacted.
    I think our former governor King wants to put some out in the bays were it makes sense, we shall see if those go forward, hopefully the kennedys dont have property nearby because I am sure they wouln't be in favor;)
  17. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    Our Maine govt. is too busy playing Robin Hood on every issue that comes up, and banning things like certain types of cigarette lighters (no kidding) to spend time and energy on pesky things like energy plans.

    The only "energy plan" I have heard from them is how to pay for all the oil that is going to need to be purchased for fuel assistance programs this winter. A necessary discussion? Yes. Nobody should freeze to death. However, it fixes nothing.
  18. Jerry_NJ

    Jerry_NJ Minister of Fire

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    Great, if you've got some regular wind, go for it. I'm not in favor for more oil use, I've been driving 4 cylinder cars with manual transmissions since 1980, and at that time my previous car had all of a 231 CID V6, my last big engine.

    Even the French get significant electricity from nuclear, and we the inventors are still tied to coal and oil because the conservationist are against nuclear, how about hydroelectric? No, might disturb some fish migration. I remember living in Seattle in the 1960s and electricity cost so little, about 7/10 of a cent per KWH, that they billed only once every two months. Why was it so low? Hydroelectric. To calibrate, I moved from there to NJ and electricity was about 3.5 cents per KWH, best I can recall. Here in NJ electricity is coal and nuclear, and regulated, so why do they keep increasing cost of electricity? You've got it, charge what the market (can almost) bear, and that's with regulation, so much for the politically appointed watchdogs... just dogs.
  19. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    I would say it does fix something. If, as I suspect - other energy products are still in the range of "reasonable" (LP, Electric, Nat Gas) next winter, then it is unfair for the citizens of Maine to bear the entire burden of the speculation in oil. Now you might call that a handout or welfare, but I call it no different than the thousands of subsidies for farm products, corn, ethanol, oil, real estate and many other businesses. In this case, it is no different than a flood or a hurricane where help is needed....on a temporary basis.

    If you think this fixes nothing, then you probably also think the midwesterners should be left to drown and give up Cedar Rapids to the elements. We are supposed to be one country, and there is such thing as the common good. Folks who heat with oil are a very small % of the country, and the amount of money needed to help them is a drop in the bucket compared to most other disasters.

    So don't discount feeding a few mouthfuls of air to a drowning person - they may get enough of a hit to tread water themselves if they can just get past the next wave.
  20. Jerry_NJ

    Jerry_NJ Minister of Fire

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    While I am somewhat of the mind, why rebuild Cedar Rapids, I'm not looking forward to the next time, I am not opposed to helping...mostly with low interest loans. The idea of helping with oil heating pain, seems to be at least as reasonable as helping other national disasters. But, where do we stop, how do we measure need, how do we address all the problems governmental involvement causes?

    I think we should use tax money to help people move from Cedar Rapids to higher ground, and for people with oil heat in cold climates get onto some other form of heat that is cheaper and home grown (wind, solar, nuclear,...).
  21. Turbozcs2003

    Turbozcs2003 New Member

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    Per the oil, they "maine" are studying it but I dont know what is there to study?? They are going to have some very cold folks this winter. They will argue as to what amount to charge the local oil vendors for Liheap. Last year they wanted them to sell to the program at a loss of 2 cents per gallon. Most vendors couldnt do that and it was rather rude on the state part to insist on it. CN Brown said no thanks, they were willing to sell at cost but couldnt afford to lose money. So as usual the state got nothing from them.
    I hope the heating oil goes down but I guess at least I will be purchasing less with my pellet stove so some other folks might benefit indirectly.
  22. gw2kpro

    gw2kpro New Member

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    Cedar Rapids is actually a pretty nice place. If we are not going to rebuild places that have been hit by natural disasters, then I guess there is no current construciton in New Orleans? How about most of California? Half the state there either burns to the ground every summer or gets washed away in mudslides in the spring. How about any coastal area ever hit by a hurricane? We're now ruling out most of FLorida and Most of California.

    How about any place in the US that has ever suffered flood damage?

    When I lived in South Dakota, we had a flood you wouldn't believe in the late '90's, when we had 4 feet of snow melt in the span of a few days. You might remember the devastation around Grand Forks, ND that was televised. If we didn't rebuild the areas that were flooded during those times, we'd be out an area probably the size of New Jersey. How about in Maine this year, they got something like 120 inches of snow in the northern third of the state and it flooded countless communities this spring. Should they all have to move somewhere else? Where should they move to? Florida's out, California's out, anywhere near a river is out, they don't have any water in Atlanta........
  23. Jerry_NJ

    Jerry_NJ Minister of Fire

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    I'm ok with not rebuilding New Orleans... etc. I'm for helping out once, not providing free insurance for people who enjoy living or river or ocean front, or view hill side... they should know the risk when the buy/build. If my house goes down in a giant sink-hole, or if the South Branch river (about 1//4 mile and 100 feet lower) goes above any recorded flooding ever recorded or imagined, then I'll feel real sorry for me, but no one can say I should have expected given my poor choice for the location of my house.
  24. webbie

    webbie Seasoned Moderator Staff Member

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    Think about this - what if global warming and the manipulation of the river by everyone from the Army corps of engineers to the farmers and states upstream...causes a normal 500 year flood to happen every 50 years?

    No one made a poor choice......it was the result of many unexpected consequences.

    What happened to the American can-do spirit? Vast percentages of the Netherlands and other countries on the planet are built in "poor" locations, yet they invested enough money to protect it properly. We are guilty, once again, of that short term thinking which says there is always somewhere else to move to, and that it is their own fault (The Iowans) for being born in a particular city.

    We need to invest in more public works....once again, the giant sucking sound is the war, deficit and pork while we cry about not having enough money to build a first-world infrastructure. It's high time we actually "lived" here in this country as opposed to continual movement as we screw up one place and escape to another.
  25. MainePellethead

    MainePellethead Minister of Fire

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    I agree iron! I talked to 3 different stove dealers recently and their comments were exactly the same....theres not much money in the pellets from them selling them, they merely have them for a service. But your right....moving them has participated in the rising cost.
    But....cost has not gone up to to much I would say....a guy at work just got 3 ton for 220 a ton. I paid 223 last winter...
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