Corona Virus

[Ashful]

A guy who used to report to me, and still works in my office, has tested positive. I almost ran into him in the hallway ten days ago, and we frequently use the same equipment, but not in the last two weeks. I’m clear, but several of my coworkers are now on the two-week watch. The guy who tested positive has no symptoms, he only got tested because he has a sick family member.

Got another friend in the hospital ICU with it now. Sounds like he’s not as bad as some others, but he is very frustrated and lonely.

 

[PaulOinMA]

SIL just texted my wife. Their friend's mom just died on COVID-19.

 

[begreen]

The news an hour ago said the White House is preparing for 100k - 200k deaths, which is one of the more optimistic forecasts I’ve seen, representing only 0.05% of the US population. If prior estimates of 3% mortality are anywhere near accurate, that means they expect only 5M Americans to contract this disease, a mere 1.6% of our population. That would be a much better outcome than has been forecast by others, and it’s still terrible, but I hope we are so lucky.

It's estimated that only about 5% of the population will get infected before summer. One can't look at the total population numbers until this is over. If the mortality rate for the overall population stays low, great. But it is how many people die that have been infected that is the real mortality rate. If the mortalities stop at no higher than 200,000 people, that would be about 1.24% of the 5% of the population. Currently, the mortality rate for people of my age group getting this disease stands at around 10%, globally. I hope we do better locally.

 

[SpaceBus]

It's estimated that only about 5% of the population will get infected before summer. One can't look at the total population numbers until this is over. If the mortality rate for the overall population stays low, great. But it is how many people die that have been infected that is the real mortality rate. That is going to be much higher number. Currently, the mortality rate for people of my age group getting this disease stands at around 10%, globally. I hope we do better locally.

This is a tragedy.

 

[kennyp2339]

This is a tragedy.

I agree with that, but always remember, with tragedies almost always comes innovation, lessons learned, and change.
We are in the way beginning of this virus, but already we as a country and like the rest of the world are learning from mistakes that have been made which may have contributed to the rapid intensity of the virus.
Just my own personal beliefs here, but one of the greatest lessons learned so far is that we need our nations governments to speak with each other clearer, I know in recent weeks / months there's been finger pointing towards the Chinese, did the US operate efficiently? probably not, but did the Chinese operate efficiently in communication? probably not.
I have learned that we in the US cannot afford to outsource manufacturing anymore, from raw materials to actual factories that make general equipment, not necessarily medical equipment, but more then what we have now.
We see so many everyday people coming out to help, literally giving up a 5 pack of masks from there garage or basement storage shelf to a county collection point, I know after this initial wave blows through the same every day person will be up for true change to make ourselves less dependent and better prepared for the future.

 

[Grizzerbear]

My aunt in laws father passed away this morning. I don't know if you remember my post earlier this week but he and his wife, daughter, son in law and their newborn went to Texas and he came back sick. He fell into a coma while on a ventilator and never could recover. His wife did test positive a couple days later....she is quarantining and so far so good. I didn't know him real well but obviously I feel terrible for his wife and the whole family. It's crazy. That's all I can really say.

 

[weatherguy]

Sorry to hear that Grizz, it's a nasty virus and beginning to touch a lot of people.

 

[Medic21]

This is a tragedy.

Actually this is a Strategy, keeping it this low may be a miracle.

 

[peakbagger]

Sympathies to the folks who gave us the news on their relatives or friends who passed. This is needed to make things "real"for some folks. Maybe it will offset some of the vile commentary and grandstanding by conservative commentators that this is a scam or being manipulated by some made up evil entity.

 

[kennyp2339]

Sympathies to the folks who gave us the news on their relatives or friends who passed. This is needed to make things "real"for some folks. Maybe it will offset some of the vile commentary and grandstanding by conservative commentators that this is a scam or being manipulated by some made up evil entity.

I def agree, but there will always be that handful of people out there, hopefully there voice in the conversation will get muted and discarded by the masses, while not pointing out people directly I think of those that are flat earthers, antivaxxer's and the large churches that still are fighting to meet up for sermons.

 

[kennyp2339]

I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive.
This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.
A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.

 

[SpaceBus]

I agree with that, but always remember, with tragedies almost always comes innovation, lessons learned, and change.
We are in the way beginning of this virus, but already we as a country and like the rest of the world are learning from mistakes that have been made which may have contributed to the rapid intensity of the virus.
Just my own personal beliefs here, but one of the greatest lessons learned so far is that we need our nations governments to speak with each other clearer, I know in recent weeks / months there's been finger pointing towards the Chinese, did the US operate efficiently? probably not, but did the Chinese operate efficiently in communication? probably not.
I have learned that we in the US cannot afford to outsource manufacturing anymore, from raw materials to actual factories that make general equipment, not necessarily medical equipment, but more then what we have now.
We see so many everyday people coming out to help, literally giving up a 5 pack of masks from there garage or basement storage shelf to a county collection point, I know after this initial wave blows through the same every day person will be up for true change to make ourselves less dependent and better prepared for the future.

Indeed. My wife and I are hopeful for some meaningful regime changes globally, but I'm also not holding my breath. I think production, especially solar components, medical, and textile industries will return to power in the US. A big part of colonial success came from textiles.

 

[Ashful]

As of this morning:

6098 deaths
10,411 recoveries
Mortality = 6098 / (6098+10,411) = 37%

I still expect this number to trend down over time, but I’m surprised it’s not, already. The things that will bring it down, in chronological order, should be:

1. Increasing number of non-critical cases being tested or presumed positive.
2. Improved treatment protocols (eg hydrochloroquin, etc)
3. Eventual vaccine (next year)

 

[SpaceBus]

As of this morning:

6098 deaths
10,411 recoveries
Mortality = 6098 / (6098+10,411) = 37%

I still expect this number to trend down over time, but I’m surprised it’s not, already. The things that will bring it down, in chronological order, should be:

1. Increasing number of non-critical cases being tested or presumed positive.
2. Improved treatment protocols (eg hydrochloroquin, etc)
3. Eventual vaccine (next year)

This is still pretty dire. My wife was watching something yesterday that really put a lot of blame on China for under/misrepreporting events.

 

[Medic21]

I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive.
This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.
A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.

The only thing a mask will do is stop you from spreading it if you have it. There is even a question on the effectiveness of N95 masks on pts that are ventilated.

The one thing about the deaths they are not releasing is the actual cause of death. They are releasing the fact the person tested positive at the time of death but, not the cause. Was it an underlying undiagnosed medical problem? Was it a known medical problem? They should also compare the deaths to the number of flu deaths from the comparable timeframe. When you look at those numbers side by side, I’m concerned but, the flu is still responsible for more deaths a 3:1 ratio a day in the US than Coronavirus is.

Could you imagine if the news would post how many people died in the US each day like this from the flu. There have been from 36000-56000 teach year for the last decade.

 

[mcdougy]

The statement " were all in this together" is an understatement to say the least.
All countries medical systems are failing to stand up to this virus. All are trying, brave people do their jobs, but resources AND directives from above are failing. Now the pressure of government hoarding is showing its ugly face.
Trust in humanity morals will hopefully prevail......."we are ALL in this together"

My father's situation is still unfolding, currently he sounds healthy. My full story is outrageous on the handling of the situation. Not only on a personal level, on a country wide level for LTC residents. They are being left unprotected.

 

[AlbergSteve]

Some promise here, but it's still going to take time.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/trial-drug-covid-19-ubc-1.5519348

 

[kennyp2339]

When you look at those numbers side by side, I’m concerned but, the flu is still responsible for more deaths a 3:1 ratio a day in the US than Coronavirus is.

I am not trying to discredit your rational here, but comparing the flu to corona is looking like apples to oranges here, first is the data itself, with the flu we compile the data at the end of the year, its easier to do because many regions in different geographical areas have "seasons" we also have a vaccine which seems to be 80% effective, and our scientists can isolate the strain which they believe can become the most problematic.
Corona is different, if I were to ask you 5 months ago what you would think about this virus, you wouldn't be able to even identify it, In January is when we started to receive many reports coming from news agencies and social media from China.
Our current data on Corona is not even remotely complete yet so far since being affected by it for 1 month we are quickly realizing that this is way more aggressive then the flu, just by the numbers of people that have succumbed below the age of 60.
Here's some food for thought: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Then there's the news coming out of Washington DC eluding to the fact that the US can see upwards of 200k in deaths, this is in our fully developed country vs the flu which in the US kills on average between 12k - 60k a year.
Just image what its like or going to be like in our poor 3rd world countries or our island nations that don't get the full support of the main land.
This link is a little more scarier in my opinion, watch the data get compiled into a simple bar graph, the bar graph shows the US daily average cause of death : https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

 

[paulnlee]

I just got my updated daily company email, we have another person at the shop that has tested positive for the virus, he started feeling symptoms on 3/26 and was sent home, the next day he made an appointment to get tested, the test just came back on Wednesday positive.
This is part of the problem and why we need to wear face masks, the virus may have been infecting him up to 4-8 days before he showed symptoms, luckily he's one of the people that work our second shift and has very little contact with the physical office, even at the earliest part of the possible infection our company started taking precautions on isolating everyone, in his case he was directed to arrive from work, and get into his own company truck (that no one else uses) and take all orders or calls directly from his phone and computer.
A close friend of mine that's a career firefighter in the city of Passaic unfortunately had a fellow co-worker that succumbed to the virus earlier this week, he was 32 yrs old, 2 years on the job, also was an emt, he left behind a wife and two young children.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/20...virus-officials-call-it-a-line-of-duty-death/ This him? Saw it on a news site I go to.

 

[Sodbuster]

My wife works in a unit that cares for COVID patients, and has seen them go from "relatively" normal and talking to dead within 12 hours. Some are pulled off the vent and put on "comfort care" because the vent is having no effect and others need it worse.

 

[johneh]

Ontario just shut down all construction sites
So now Ontario is just about completely shut down
Amazon prime no 2-day delivery they are saying 30 days
Sure hope my meat bird order arrives as promised next Tuesday
(not Amazon) (Chicken and turkey chicks)

 

[Medic21]

I am not trying to discredit your rational here, but comparing the flu to corona is looking like apples to oranges here, first is the data itself, with the flu we compile the data at the end of the year, its easier to do because many regions in different geographical areas have "seasons" we also have a vaccine which seems to be 80% effective, and our scientists can isolate the strain which they believe can become the most problematic.
Corona is different, if I were to ask you 5 months ago what you would think about this virus, you wouldn't be able to even identify it, In January is when we started to receive many reports coming from news agencies and social media from China.
Our current data on Corona is not even remotely complete yet so far since being affected by it for 1 month we are quickly realizing that this is way more aggressive then the flu, just by the numbers of people that have succumbed below the age of 60.
Here's some food for thought: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Then there's the news coming out of Washington DC eluding to the fact that the US can see upwards of 200k in deaths, this is in our fully developed country vs the flu which in the US kills on average between 12k - 60k a year.
Just image what its like or going to be like in our poor 3rd world countries or our island nations that don't get the full support of the main land.
This link is a little more scarier in my opinion, watch the data get compiled into a simple bar graph, the bar graph shows the US daily average cause of death : https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19. I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.

I was notified of patient I had tested positive and he died. I can tell you for a fact he died because of the massive head bleed he had from falling 12 feet and landing on concrete with his head. And now he’s in the numbers of those that died from COVID-19. The only reason he was testing was he was on a ventilator and being put in an ICU bed when he was already brain dead and has zero chance of recovery.

Not tell me how accurate are those numbers I can guarantee you there are many more They have died in similar ways and were tested but they weren’t at the hospital because they were sick from this disease.

 

[NickW]

Ontario just shut down all construction sites
So now Ontario is just about completely shut down
Amazon prime no 2-day delivery they are saying 30 days
Sure hope my meat bird order arrives as promised next Tuesday
(not Amazon) (Chicken and turkey chicks)

I've been saying for weeks already that we should do this too! Talk about a place for things to get spread around. Carpenters, electricians, HVAC, plumbers... all on the same commercial jobsite. One infected person could spread it to how many who would then take it home...

 

[bholler]

I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19. I get what you’re saying and I even said I’m not trying to downplay it. But the fact still stands that three times the number of people die from the flu virus every day right now as compared to COVID-19.

I was notified of patient I had tested positive and he died. I can tell you for a fact he died because of the massive head bleed he had from falling 12 feet and landing on concrete with his head. And now he’s in the numbers of those that died from COVID-19. The only reason he was testing was he was on a ventilator and being put in an ICU bed when he was already brain dead and has zero chance of recovery.

Not tell me how accurate are those numbers I can guarantee you there are many more They have died in similar ways and were tested but they weren’t at the hospital because they were sick from this disease.

We know the numbers aren't accurate. But honestly I am pretty sure the number who have died from covid-19 and were not tested out number the cases like the one you cited.

For someone who keeps saying you aren't trying to down play it you sure do spend allot of time telling us it isn't very serious.

 

[paulnlee]

We know the numbers aren't accurate. But honestly I am pretty sure the number who have died from covid-19 and were not tested out number the cases like the one you cited.

For someone who keeps saying you aren't trying to down play it you sure do spend allot of time telling us it isn't very serious.

He's supplied far more facts than you never gov guys