CAFE Standards are back

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peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
7,205
Northern NH
Recent news is the EPA is reinstituting Corporate Average Fuel Standards and bumping fuel mileage requirements way up. https://www.transportation.gov/brie...e-fuel-economy-standards-model-year-2024-2026 The big three car companies in the US were selling econoboxes at a substantial loss to offset all the gas hogs they were selling. Foreign brands tended to buy credits from Tesla (a major subsidy on their original line up. Now that GM and Ford has dumped their small cars, my guess is they will be having to crank out the electric vehicles to keep selling the big trucks. Stellantis does have their import lines of small cars they can try to sell but to date they have not been very successful. My guess is big high horsepower fossil engines are going to get rare.
 
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Ashful

Minister of Fire
Mar 7, 2012
16,376
Philadelphia
Yep. Last of the SRT SUV's was 2021. Last of the gasser Hellcats is 2023. The end of an era, but not necessarily a bad thing.

I do wish some big-displacement factory ICE's would stick around for the enthusiast market, but the dollars and volume just aren't there to make it work, I guess.
 
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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,880
Downeast Maine
I think this is all for the best. Ten or fifteen years ago I would have been salty, but now I see how things get better with certain legislation.
 

peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
7,205
Northern NH
The reality at this point is electric cars have equivalent or better zero to 60 times then gas engines just by tweaking the programing. Its not really horsepower as much as the traction to get the power down in the road.

It is curious that Tesla just canceled the cyber truck today but it would have taken up space on their production line and expect they can sell everyone of their Model S's they can make so why mess with a new complex model?.
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
Recent news is the EPA is reinstituting Corporate Average Fuel Standards and bumping fuel mileage requirements way up. https://www.transportation.gov/brie...e-fuel-economy-standards-model-year-2024-2026 The big three car companies in the US were selling econoboxes at a substantial loss to offset all the gas hogs they were selling. Foreign brands tended to buy credits from Tesla (a major subsidy on their original line up. Now that GM and Ford has dumped their small cars, my guess is they will be having to crank out the electric vehicles to keep selling the big trucks. Stellantis does have their import lines of small cars they can try to sell but to date they have not been very successful. My guess is big high horsepower fossil engines are going to get rare.
It all depends on how fast they big three can ramp EV production. Ford can now sell its credits to it self as ford e is now its own company. I think the gas hog will get more expensive ford and Gmail can’t afford not to sell trucks right now.

Any automaker who has half a political brain could see how the suspension was only temporary.
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
Yep. Last of the SRT SUV's was 2021. Last of the gasser Hellcats is 2023. The end of an era, but not necessarily a bad thing.

I do wish some big-displacement factory ICE's would stick around for the enthusiast market, but the dollars and volume just aren't there to make it work, I guess.
I have had the amazing fortune to acquire a 2016 Model X p100d (the underline means it has the ludicrous mode). It’s stupid expensive and stupid fast. I get the the motor head sentimentality. But Tesla has shown for 6 years now that from a purely performance perspective electric has obvious advantages. For a pure daily drivability standpoint. Chil mode in a 1000+ HP Tesla makes it as tame as a sienna. It will make amazing performance accessible to a whole new set of people. A have a sub 11 second 1/4 mile daily driver. It seats 6 and tips the scales at 5650 pounds.

Where is the market going? I can’t help but think that Tesla is really impacting that market.
 
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EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
The reality at this point is electric cars have equivalent or better zero to 60 times then gas engines just by tweaking the programing. Its not really horsepower as much as the traction to get the power down in the road.

It is curious that Tesla just canceled the cyber truck today but it would have taken up space on their production line and expect they can sell everyone of their Model S's they can make so why mess with a new complex model?.
Ford and Rivian have a products that look decent. I wouldn’t want to complete there. I never saw how the truck fit in to their landscape. Their whole point was to design something. Redesign it to a new product but reusing as much of the original as they could. Two sizes of cyber truck doesn’t make sense.

Tesla is years ahead in the self driving software. They are now a grown up company and will continue to evolve but I don’t see any truly revolutionary new products. They are focusing on how to refine their manufacturing processes to maximize profit. There is no reason for a model 1 or 2. Chinese imports will get the small car EV market.
 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,880
Downeast Maine
That model X with all the options is pretty wild. I just want an EV or PHEV that can soak up rutted and broken roads like a rally car and get me to Bangor and back (about 200 miles total).
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
That model X with all the options is pretty wild. I just want an EV or PHEV that can soak up rutted and broken roads like a rally car and get me to Bangor and back (about 200 miles total).
https://www.subaru.com/solterra-ev

If it had three rows I’d be interested. Also I’d be looking for a Tacoma EV but who knows when that would happen. Tesla has the only fast charger in Bangor/brewer. Rural EV adoption will be slow unless we invest in infrastructure. How long has rural broadband infrastructure taken.
 
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ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Sep 18, 2019
1,480
Grande Prairie, Alberta, Canada
By my understanding 3/4 ton and 1 ton pickups are not subject to these fuel efficiency requirements. You'll see domestic automakers push these vehicles more for the "weekend warrior" crowd. Which is honestly fine by me, many of the tow ratings on the current generation of half-tons are well beyond what the weekend warrior should be towing with them anyway.

BTW the Cybertruck cancellation announcement was just an April fools joke.
 
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Ashful

Minister of Fire
Mar 7, 2012
16,376
Philadelphia
I have had the amazing fortune to acquire a 2016 Model X p100d (the underline means it has the ludicrous mode). It’s stupid expensive and stupid fast. I get the the motor head sentimentality. But Tesla has shown for 6 years now that from a purely performance perspective electric has obvious advantages. For a pure daily drivability standpoint. Chil mode in a 1000+ HP Tesla makes it as tame as a sienna. It will make amazing performance accessible to a whole new set of people. A have a sub 11 second 1/4 mile daily driver. It seats 6 and tips the scales at 5650 pounds.
Without a doubt. I’ve driven the P100D (edit: sorry, I drove the P90D), it’s absolutely insane below 30 mph, and really impressive up to 60 mph. Actually, I also drove a model 3 dual motor, and even that “lowly” model was faster up to 30 mph than my 500 HP gasser, but really fell off above that.

But the cost of any un-subsidized Tesla, when compared to a similarly featured gasser, is just insane. We were looking at their full-size performance package SUV, and after backing out the credits and assumed savings they financing that they misleadingly advertise in their pricing, it came out near $110k. We were comparing it to Durango SRT (6.4L), and other performance mod-size SUV’s, which were frankly nicer in many ways, and suited our needs at nearly half the price.

I’d have probably still gone with the Tesla, despite some of the drawbacks, if their price had been $70k, but $110k cash deal was simply insane for a moderately nice mid-size (I’m actually being generous in using ”mid-“) SUV , and made from developing tech that will depreciate substantially before we are ready to sell it.

Hopefully more joining the game will finally bring about some vehicles that match the value proposition gassers, without having to cheap out on interior and options to do it. I’d love to see a $60k sport sedan with Laguna leather interior, and 0-100 mph times under 4 seconds. You can have that in ICE today, so why can’t we expect at least the same from EV’s?
 
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EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
Without a doubt. I’ve driven the P100D (edit: sorry, I drove the P90D), it’s absolutely insane below 30 mph, and really impressive up to 60 mph. But the cost of any un-subsidized Tesla, when compared to a similarly featured gasser, is just insane. We were looking at their full-size performance package SUV, and after backing out the credits and assumed savings they financing that they misleadingly advertise in their pricing, it came out near $110k. We were comparing it to Durango SRT (6.4L), and other performance mod-size SUV’s, which were frankly nicer in many ways, and suited our needs at nearly half the price.

I’d have probably still gone with the Tesla, despite some of the drawbacks, if their price had been $70k, but $110k cash deal was simply insane for a moderately nice mid-size (I’m actually being generous in using ”mid-“) SUV , and made from developing tech that will depreciate substantially before we are ready to sell it.
I completely agree. If you want a “mid” EV there is no competition. Rivian may have a large one at some point. But I’m not sure if they will survive.
 
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SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,880
Downeast Maine
https://www.subaru.com/solterra-ev

If it had three rows I’d be interested. Also I’d be looking for a Tacoma EV but who knows when that would happen. Tesla has the only fast charger in Bangor/brewer. Rural EV adoption will be slow unless we invest in infrastructure. How long has rural broadband infrastructure taken.
Tacoma EV wouldn't be too bad, but I'd rather a Maverick EV or something in that class since I already have a dually for truck duties. That Subaru Solterra isn't too bad either, if not a bit larger than what we need. The Jeep Gladiator is probably my favorite non-EV/PHEV on the market right now, although that just announced US spec GR Corolla looks pretty sweet. Back when you could get the 1.4t and six speed with AWD the Jeep Renegade was always something I wanted for a daily driver. Got pretty close to buying one, but the timing didn't work out and it was for the best. As much as I like the Jeeps and the new GR Corolla, I can't see myself putting money into obsolete technology and would prefer to hold out for something like that, but an EV or at least PHEV. I like the idea of a PHEV for use as a very quiet generator for power outages, or potentially putting in enough solar to not be grid dependent at all and then the car is also a battery bank and backup power for the house. An EV could potentially be a whole house battery bank/backup power if it had enough battery storage, but cars with those kinds of packs are crazy expensive. Ultimately we need to build a garage before we do anything else, and hopefully that will be in the next two to three years. By that time there should be some better EV/PHEV options on the market.
 

peakbagger

Minister of Fire
Jul 11, 2008
7,205
Northern NH
Couple of things to factor in, these rules would have been in effect if they had not been shelved by the past administration. Current predictions are that the current party in charge of the House will lose it to the other party, they cant directly change the policy but could definitely impact it. So does someone roll the dice that the next presidential election puts the standards on hold? The other aspect is fuel cost versus charging cost. With renewable being cheaper than fossil for new power capacity, the market is going to inevitably shift to off peak charging so my guess is liquid fossil fuels will climb faster than off peak charging.

The tradeoff is there are some new less expensive battery chemistries and solid state batteries that may radically change the equation on the range and cost.

I doubt the heavy trucks exemption from CAFE standards is going to last. Its counterproductlve to leave effectively incentives in place for folks to commute with heavy vehicles. Then again the price of fossil fuels is probably making a convincing argument to many.
 
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EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
Couple of things to factor in, these rules would have been in effect if they had not been shelved by the past administration. Current predictions are that the current party in charge of the House will lose it to the other party, they cant directly change the policy but could definitely impact it. So does someone roll the dice that the next presidential election puts the standards on hold? The other aspect is fuel cost versus charging cost. With renewable being cheaper than fossil for new power capacity, the market is going to inevitably shift to off peak charging so my guess is liquid fossil fuels will climb faster than off peak charging.

The tradeoff is there are some new less expensive battery chemistries and solid state batteries that may radically change the equation on the range and cost.

I doubt the heavy trucks exemption from CAFE standards is going to last. Its counterproductlve to leave effectively incentives in place for folks to commute with heavy vehicles. Then again the price of fossil fuels is probably making a convincing argument to many.
Completely agree about the heavy truck
Exemption and fuel vs electric prices. The ICE is in its last days For mass production. Electives motors are cheaper to make and maintain. The tech exists for heavy duty EVs. It’s just a matter of cost. Cost will continue to come down. The CAFE standards are just now part of the cost to make and sell them. It will be reflected in MSRP I imagine.

I’m looking around at all the Rover vehicles that have been sold in my area since a dealership opened and expanded 6-7 years ago. There will always be people will to pay (upfront and for the increased cost of ownership) for an image they find desirable. But there is a point which this increases cost will impact sales.
 

EbS-P

Minister of Fire
Jan 19, 2019
2,419
SE North Carolina
What…. Race car engines won’t meet requirements…no Z06, no STI…. I’m so not shocked. Petrol heads should enjoy the sunset…. Take a deep breath turn around watch an intriguing sunrise. It may take a few years but it will be brighter than the sunset.

 

SpaceBus

Minister of Fire
Nov 18, 2018
6,880
Downeast Maine
What…. Race car engines won’t meet requirements…no Z06, no STI…. I’m so not shocked. Petrol heads should enjoy the sunset…. Take a deep breath turn around watch an intriguing sunrise. It may take a few years but it will be brighter than the sunset.

That's an april fool's joke.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
93,196
South Puget Sound, WA
Rivian production is strong, but it is limited by supply chain issues. Today there are reports of supply disruptions due to Russia's war on Ukraine. They say they are running at about 50% capacity (25,000 vs 50,000/yr.)

Here's a fun performance comparison video with the R1T.
 
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