Corona Virus

[begreen]

The Wuhan Flu is nothing more than the Asian Flu that goes around every year.

That is a factual misstatement. The Covid-19 virus is related to SARS and MERS. That is how it was able to be detected so quickly.

Coronaviruses

Coronaviruses are a priority for NIAID. Three forms have emerged over the past two decades. These cause the serious and widespread diseases SARS, MERS, and COVID-19.

www.niaid.nih.gov

FWIW, the first US person infected with Covid-19 just died, in WA state. There are one, possibly 2 cases in the state that are community spread, with not travel involved.

 

[SidecarFlip]

So, tell me how many die from the common influenza every year? I lot more I bet. I'm still not overly concerned. I'm concerned but not to the point where 'the sky is falling' Most of the 'panic' is media induced from what I see.

No panic here. Life goes on until it ends, just like it does for everyone, you and me included.

Having said that, I just take the normal precautions I do every flu season.

 

[bholler]

So, tell me how many die from the common influenza every year? I lot more I bet. I'm still not overly concerned. I'm concerned but not to the point where 'the sky is falling' Most of the 'panic' is media induced from what I see.

No panic here. Life goes on until it ends, just like it does for everyone, you and me included.

Having said that, I just take the normal precautions I do every flu season.

I agree no need to panic. But we also can't ignore it or it could turn into a pandemic.

 

[SpaceBus]

Also there is no pneumonia vaccine. Pneumonia is a term to describe the condition of having lungs full of fluid from many different causes. Bacteria, dust, spores, and viruses can all cause pneumonia.

 

[begreen]

Crap, our county just became ground zero in the US. State of emergency declared as an entire nursing facility may be infected and there are several community vectors out and about, many not knowing that they are infected. Two nursing homes affected that have been visited by family, friends, fire dept crews, and nursing students.

It's not so much the hale and hearty that are worried, but those with compromised immunities, elderly and already infirmed. My son works at a cancer care center. This is very threatening to those staying there while getting treatment.

 

[begreen]

There is an unusual silver lining when everyone stays at home. In China there has been a massive decrease in air pollution. Hmmm.

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown

Nasa says major decreases in nitrogen dioxide levels are "at least partly" linked to the outbreak.

www.bbc.com

 

[peakbagger]

Also there is no pneumonia vaccine. Pneumonia is a term to describe the condition of having lungs full of fluid from many different causes. Bacteria, dust, spores, and viruses can all cause pneumonia.

Just to keep things straight (realizing I am layman and not doctor ) I agree pneumonia is an infection of the lungs from multiple sources including viruses, bacteria and fungi with similar symptoms and results. There is a Pneumococcal vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria for children and older adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/pneumo/index.html, What happens frequently is that a person will have compromised lungs from a variety of sources, old age, smoking, genetics and environmental exposure and the bacteria version will sneak in and make things far worse as its always present in the environment. Getting the adult shot boosts the immune system to reduce the likelihood of getting the most prevalent bacteriological version. I think most folks have known others or experienced it themselves that they start out with a common cold (which is a virus), try to ignore it and then while they are fighting that off and their lungs are compromised is that they get bacterial pneumonia on top of the cold. The vaccine is intended to break that link and provide the elderly population herd immunity.

 

[SpaceBus]

Just to keep things straight (realizing I am layman and not doctor ) I agree pneumonia is an infection of the lungs from multiple sources including viruses, bacteria and fungi with similar symptoms and results. There is a Pneumococcal vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae bacteria for children and older adults https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/pneumo/index.html, What happens frequently is that a person will have compromised lungs from a variety of sources, old age, smoking, genetics and environmental exposure and the bacteria version will sneak in and make things far worse as its always present in the environment. Getting the adult shot boosts the immune system to reduce the likelihood of getting the most prevalent bacteriological version. I think most folks have known others or experienced it themselves that they start out with a common cold (which is a virus), try to ignore it and then while they are fighting that off and their lungs are compromised is that they get bacterial pneumonia on top of the cold. The vaccine is intended to break that link and provide the elderly population herd immunity.

Indeed, I had seen where a poster said they had a pneumonia vaccine. For the sake of others I wanted to clarify so folks don't get overly bold and die.

 

[begreen]

Today's update based on testing here:
"In Washington State, researchers compared two cases in the hopes of gaining such insight. One case, which last month became the first in the United States, appeared in a patient from whom health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. Another case that surfaced in the region last week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington.

If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected."
www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html

 

[hockeypuck]

The scariest part of this virus is they do not know how long it can live outside a host and some people seem to carry the virus after they have been "cured" add to that the 3 or 4 week incubation period. I have a hard time thinking that this thing was not genetically altered, but I will take my tinfoil hat off and leave it here.

 

[thewoodlands]

Today's update based on testing here:
"In Washington State, researchers compared two cases in the hopes of gaining such insight. One case, which last month became the first in the United States, appeared in a patient from whom health officials took a sample on Jan. 19. Another case that surfaced in the region last week probably descended from it, based on an analysis of the virus’s genetic sequence.

The findings suggest that the virus has been spreading in the community for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington.

If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected."
www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.html

We have two state colleges and two private colleges not far from us, one of the private schools are calling kids back from Italy. We have kids from this town going to SLU, I wonder if any are in Italy or Spain.

https://www.wwnytv.com/2020/03/01/coronavirus-spreads-slu-calls-students-home-italy/

 

[begreen]

The scariest part of this virus is they do not know how long it can live outside a host and some people seem to carry the virus after they have been "cured" add to that the 3 or 4 week incubation period. I have a hard time thinking that this thing was not genetically altered, but I will take my tinfoil hat off and leave it here.

Viruses have been around since the beginning of life. They can and do evolve when given a new host. This can happen in someone eating a wild animal like the pangolin. We are learning more every day. There are definitely diseases that spread more quickly and are much more deadly. This article provides some good information on what we know so far.

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get? Here Are 6 Key Factors (Published 2020)

Here’s what early research says about how the pathogen behaves and the factors that will determine how far it will spread.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Highbeam]

I’m not worried about getting the virus. I’m worried about peoples’ panic and hysteria.

 

[begreen]

I don't worry too much, but I get your concerns I think. A friend was at Trader Joes today and found certain shelves bare. Looks like beans and rice are disappearing quickly. Another friend said hand sanitizers have disappeared. I asked them how are the chocolates and booze aisles doing and they said no problem. Now that worries me. Where are their priorities?!

 

[begreen]

If one is interested in how this virus is adapting, here is an interesting visual tracking of the epidemiology.

auspice

nextstrain.org

 

[Sawset]

There were 95 deaths just today in the US from motor vehicle crashes. Need to get on that. 35,000 every year. Will need to shut businesses and schools to get people off the roadways. Just adding another statistic for perspective. A preventable virus is serious though, I shouldn't make lite of it. But I won't be staying home, or running to get supplies, just yet.

 

[SpaceBus]

There were 95 deaths just today in the US from motor vehicle crashes. Need to get on that. 35,000 every year. Will need to shut businesses and schools to get people off the roadways. Just adding another statistic for perspective. A preventable virus is serious though, I shouldn't make lite of it. But I won't be staying home, or running to get supplies, just yet.

I mean, most traffic deaths are preventable too, so not too far off.

 

[Highbeam]

I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.

As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.

 

[SpaceBus]

I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.

As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.

Agreed on most points. I wish we had more dried beans and grains, but we have only been here for a year.

 

[Ashful]

I look at this as a big fire drill. Shouldn’t we all have enough supplies for 14 days at home, shouldn’t we all be reminded not to ingest other peoples’ snot, shouldn’t we all be prepared to work from home? I know not to talk about guns and ammo so I’ll just say, shouldn’t we all prepare to help those people who didn’t prepare? Overdue correction in the stock market, overdue restoration of funding to cdc.

As long as my loved ones don’t die, there’s a lot to like about a preparedness drill.

I like the sentiment, but I’m not sure what 14 days at home would buy you, in this case. Heck, if you read the stories begreen linked above, you’ll note the statement about this disease having gone undetected in the US for six weeks. Once it hits your neighborhood, which appears to be inevitable at this point, it could be hanging around in the population a lot longer than 14 days.

I’m just glad we are close to the end of cold and flu season, as some statements have been made which tie the spread of this disease to the cold and flu season. Hopefully we will reach warm weather before this thing gets too far, and some quick and effective work can be done on a vaccines and other preventative measures, before next October.

 

[begreen]

I’m just glad we are close to the end of cold and flu season, as some statements have been made which tie the spread of this disease to the cold and flu season. Hopefully we will reach warm weather before this thing gets too far, and some quick and effective work can be done on a vaccines and other preventative measures, before next October.

Yes, that is the best hope. Typically viruses can survive longer on cold surfaces than on warm ones. How this will evolve from warm weather here and on is unknown. It certainly will start showing up more in the southern hemisphere as they cool down in fall in Africa, Australia and South America. So far the closest to 'ready for testing' vaccine appears to be in Israel which some are saying is 90 days out before trials. Others are further behind with a 12-18 month delay before mass manufacturing. This of course presumes success with the trials.

 

[Highbeam]

I’m not sure what 14 days at home would buy you,

This goes back to an important point. I'm not worried about the virus. I just assume that I will get it or have gotten it.

What the 14 days gets you is survival/comfort when you can't leave your home or there are no supplies available to replenish the typical household that has very little food on hand. Very few people (mormons?) are completely independent of the supply chain but 14 days is the recommended preparedness period by the disaster preparedness folks. It takes 14 days before actual military style help can be mobilized. Earthquakes, wildfire, power outage, hurricane, nuclear, contagion, etc.

Academics about virus spread and statistics are just noise but are certainly entertaining. Be prepared for the chaos and disruptions of the supply chain that we all depend on. I can't be the only one that has watched the zombie movies! Real life zombies aren't the infected ones but the unprepared that want your stuff.

 

[Ashful]

You may be mixing up the Mormons and Amish, I think. But yeah, I get your thinking, there.

 

[semipro]

Mormons, or LDS, as they prefer, are well know for their prepping. IIRC it's either a religious tenet or church policy.

Be prepared for the chaos and disruptions of the supply chain that we all depend on.

The web of resources that gets us the stuff we need is both complex and fragile. I realized that after Katrina hit NOLA.
Most of us wood burners here are already a step ahead just having heat.
You're right also in that survival may well mean either preparing or taking from those that do.

 

[begreen]

In an earthquake zone it is good to be prepared, especially if one is rural. Larger population zones and infrastructure will be the priority for a while. While most cases will be mild or moderate, folks over 65 are more vulnerable. That includes us and many friends and neighbors. Some are definitely immune-compromised. Keep in touch with them and be ready to offer assistance if needed for shopping or to get to a doctor.