Corona Virus

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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,725
South Puget Sound, WA
Thanks. Our doubling is getting into higher numbers of people now. But the doubling here has leveled off to every 10 days. That is good news. NY is at every 2 days! Hopefully this will slow that down, but there are several states that are just starting to ramp up like Georgia, Louisiana and New Jersey.
 
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Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
While the number of cases continues to go up it seems the death rate in the US has slowed. We are at 1.3% . If as many as 80% of the cases have no or mild symptoms and are not tested or included in the numbers the death rate could be greatly exaggerated. Evidence of of some drug successes may be slowing the death rate.
From what we are seeing I think death rate will turn out lower here than anywhere else in the world. Just because we will end up testing more and have a larger number of cases. What people need to realize is the death rate in people that are at a risk has not changed. It’s still dealt with underlying problems.

There are very promising studies with anti malarial meds but, nothing has been peer reviews to and all have been in small levels. We can hope that it will help those that get critically ill.

If your young and healthy we don’t have much to worry about. Don’t be caught up in a illusion you can’t kill someone you love though.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,725
South Puget Sound, WA
We are seeing a spike in the young and healthy as hospital admissions. They may not die in as high of a percentage as compared to older people over 70, but they sure can get seriously ill.
 

Seasoned Oak

Minister of Fire
Oct 17, 2008
7,071
Eastern Central PA
From what we are seeing I think death rate will turn out lower here than anywhere else in the world.
What do you think of the Anti malaria drug that seems to be promising medic?. One doctor claiming out of 350 patients no deaths ,no ventilators.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
@bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole. But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.

As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them. If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now. I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,725
South Puget Sound, WA
@bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole. But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.

As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them. If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now. I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.
Same thing here. A group in a rural county had a meeting of 60 people around March 13th. 32 of them now are infected.
 

ABMax24

Feeling the Heat
While the number of cases continues to go up it seems the death rate in the US has slowed. We are at 1.3% . If as many as 80% of the cases have no or mild symptoms and are not tested or included in the numbers the death rate could be greatly exaggerated. Evidence of of some drug successes may be slowing the death rate.
I think it is showing that way right now because over half the US cases have been detected in the last 3 days. This will sound morbid, but many that have contracted it in the US haven't had enough time to die yet. Spain showed that trend, the death rate increased about 4 days after the case count increased. My guess is the US death rate will start to increase starting tomorrow.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
What do you think of the Anti malaria drug that seems to be promising medic?. One doctor claiming out of 350 patients no deaths ,no ventilators.
Like I said it’s not peer reviewed for accuracy. Medical studies have to be with a grain of salt because they are usually conducted to prove a theory since it’s unethical to withhold a treatment for a placebo. The only concrete study right now is 34 pts overseas.

I believe it’s promising and further studies are underway All over the USA right now. Cross your fingers. The chit sucks to take as a preventative, trust me I took it for a year and a half, but if it works it will be a game changer.

edited because whiskey causes fat fingers on a phone.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,725
South Puget Sound, WA
A large number are being traced back to churches in Indiana.
I've heard of old time religion, but this is getting biblical.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
I think it is showing that way right now because over half the US cases have been detected in the last 3 days. This will sound morbid, but many that have contracted it in the US haven't had enough time to die yet. Spain showed that trend, the death rate increased about 4 days after the case count increased. My guess is the US death rate will start to increase starting tomorrow.
You are very correct morbid or not. There are multiple cases that died before tests came back and autopsy is revealing the cause of death.

There will be MANY more deaths before this is over.
 

Ashful

Minister of Fire
Mar 7, 2012
15,727
Philadelphia
Like I said it’s not peer reviewed for accuracy. Medical studies have to be with a grain of salt...
Peer review is an enormous problem across all sciences in modern times, there simply isn't funding or money in repeating and publishing on the experiments of others, a critical step in peer review. I have been dealing with the same issue in my area of study for two decades. But it does appear that the attention and immediacy required by this situation is causing a reversal of that trend, there appears to be a lot of collaboration and organization around research into COVID-19.
 

Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
Peer review is an enormous problem across all sciences in modern times, there simply isn't funding or money in repeating and publishing on the experiments of others, a critical step in peer review. I have been dealing with the same issue in my area of study for two decades. But it does appear that the attention and immediacy required by this situation is causing a reversal of that trend, there appears to be a lot of collaboration and organization around research into COVID-19.
A lot of barriers are being broken right now. All medical studies are hard to take in. As I said if it involves a placebo vs treatment it is very unethical to withhold treatment so all studies in the medical field are skewed unless they are looking at historical data.

I was involved in one with cpr years ago. There were so many thrown out of the study, even with positive results, that should have been looked at it was ridiculous and proved to me the study was designed around expected results not blind results.
 

MTY

Feeling the Heat
Jan 9, 2019
346
Idaho
Upon occasion I have to shop. I notice a good portion of the sales people are not young and do not appear to be overly healthy. Are they risking becoming ill due to a sense of service, or are they seriously dependent on the income from a low paying job? Perhaps they feel impervious to what life may throw at them. No matter their reasons, we would be in a world of hurt without them.
 

bholler

Chimney sweep
Staff member
Jan 14, 2014
21,492
central pa
@bholler from the other thread I do believe it is over react acting on a whole. But, at the end of the day the government reactions are there because too many are not respecting what can happen to a large portion of our citizens with underlying problems.

As long as people are selfish someone will have to make a decision for them. If people had listened and heeded cdc advise two weeks ago we wouldn’t have the spread we have now. I know where the community spread cake from in my state and it would make you sick that the majority of cases came from one place over 8 days because people didn't listen about large gatherings.
That I can agree with completely. I must have misinterpreted your other statement. My apologies
 
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fbelec

Minister of Fire
Nov 23, 2005
2,706
Massachusetts
massachusetts just put out as of tomorrow at noon everybody stays home but essential people. i stopped by the police station to get clarity and he said i don't know best to go to the state web site. well the tv news did the clarity electricians and plumbers are essential. me being my own boss have no one to blame if out on the road. the govenor also said that there will be fines if the wrong business is still open.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
82,725
South Puget Sound, WA
Governor's list for essential personnel in WA state is pretty long.
 
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Medic21

Minister of Fire
Feb 26, 2017
1,000
Northern Indiana
I got a good laugh last night when I read our essential list for Indiana. “The following but, not limited too”.

The Indiana government is also telling people if you don’t think you’re essential to argue with with your employer. So basically everyone’s essential if the employer thinks they are. Kind of a waste if you ask me.

Well maybe I should ask my employer if I am essential. As I’m driving to work for another 24 hour shift.
 

kennyp2339

Minister of Fire
Feb 16, 2014
4,900
07462
Sounding like NY is going to explode.
unfortunately is looks inevitable, imo people just didn't take this threat seriously over the weekend, many, many photos showing folks out and about on the nice Saturday & Sunday we had, standing at parks together, playing games, waiting on lines close with each other.
The other unfortunate thing is that from the reports and accounts I've came across, the symptoms are not as sudden, so while some maybe ill, others get ill then progress to even sicker as symptoms of pneumonia set in, this is what puts the strain on hospitals, the influx of people on there day 5 or 6 that sudden trend worse and need medical attention asap.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
20


I would like to see the basis for your claims with respect to "even those that recover have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring" and "Bad thing is, you can beat it and get it again, no guarantee you won't"

One of the significant issues with the pandemics spread is that many of those who catch it are asymptomatic which means they have no symptoms and are therefore very efficient carriers. The very rough numbers I have seen are 80% of those infected with it are in this group. These people are going to recover without even knowing they had it. Perhaps you meant to say even the minority of the population with a severe case that recover may have decreased lung capacity and permanent lung scarring. Still scary but somewhat more reflective of the current reality. With respect to the" you can beat it and get it again" I think the research consensus is still out on that. The infamous CDC test series only is looking for an active specific CV-19 viral infection, it does not test for evidence of the immune response from someone who has fully recovered therefore not a lot of supported research on if someone who has fully recovered can get it again. That test is apparently being developed but is not yet on the streets.

I agree that following the recommendations to not catch it are essential to try to prevent the spread of it so it does not get into the vulnerable populations and if you need to overstate the risks to the general populations for your own purposes fine but its best not to state it as a fact when its not. Plenty of hype out there no need to repeat it.
In as much as I've never had it and don't want it, only what I read, but by the same token, I personally don't know of anyone who has recovered from it so could be all smoke and mirrors.

Only in this case I don't want to find out personally.

If you contract it and survive, please let us know what it's like....

I'm sure the country isn't a perpetual lockdown, the market went to hell and thousands died in Italy because it isn't serious. Maybe what I've read don't hold water, would be fine with me, just fine since I'm in the 'core' group of people who don't survive.

Would be nice, don't think so however.

I'll leave it at that and continue to treat it for what it is, a potential killer.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
In as much as I've never had it and don't want it, only what I read, but by the same token, I personally don't know of anyone who has recovered from it so could be all smoke and mirrors.

Only in this case I don't want to find out personally.

If you contract it and survive, please let us know what it's like....

I'm sure the country isn't a perpetual lockdown, the market went to hell and thousands died in Italy because it isn't serious. Maybe what I've read don't hold water, would be fine with me, just fine since I'm in the 'core' group of people who don't survive.

Would be nice, don't think so however.

I'll leave it at that and continue to treat it for what it is, a potential killer.
Additionally, if you want a first hand (me) play by play account of what it's like to survive colo-rectal and liver cancer, I'd be more than will to share. How would you feel about being told that you have at best a 30% chance to survive and deal with all the pain and anguish and the chemo and the surgery and being on life support and close to death but surviving it and walking away (literally) and being 100% cancer free.. we can tell you about that 'cause I've been there and did that and that is the primary driver of why I take this so seriously. I am and always will be compromised so I sure as hell don't want it.

For me to contract would be an almost certain death sentence. No thank you. been there did that, don't want to do it again.

I'm a miracle of modern medicine but I'm not about to spin the roulette wheel again. I came away missing some parts, have a bunch of titanium inside me but I'm alive and productive and I plan on staying that way for the foreseeable future. No colostomy bag either, no special diet, just the usual, pretty happy with the outcome but it took some serious suffering to get to where I am.

So yeah, I walked the road and I don't want it (virus) so I take very seriously, everything I read about it. For me, contracting it amounts to a death sentence.
 

Ashful

Minister of Fire
Mar 7, 2012
15,727
Philadelphia
I was involved in one with cpr years ago. There were so many thrown out of the study, even with positive results, that should have been looked at it was ridiculous and proved to me the study was designed around expected results not blind results.
It may appear that way, but I believe the reason most are removed from the study is that they’re found to have circumstances that invalidate their data, such as it was discovered they doubled up and used another treatment that might invalidate the study results. Those people might feel or claim they are being removed for other reasons, but that’s not likely the case.

I have family in cancer research, unfortunately on both sides of the equation. It may sound cruel or unethical, but many are barred or removed from studies of very promising cancer treatment protocols because they were previously on another treatment, or just couldn’t follow directions in their diet and daily lives.
 
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