Current price of oil

[saichele]

I think the lack of U.S. refinery capacity may have been an issue in the recent years, but the larger problem now is that oil producing countries are pumping as much oil as they can, which is about 84 million barrels a day, and world daily demand is at that level and growing. Add to that the fact that a good deal of the world's oil reserves are locked up in politically unstable places like Iraq and Nigeria. I believe the ugly truth is that we are at or near the Peak Oil producing point and slowly but steadily from now on less oil will be pumped from the world's oil fields, while demand will continue to rise. The North Sea's production has been decimated, the Mexican oil field in the Gulf is declining, Iran and Venezuala are ekeing out every drop they can Of course while richer nations like the US will be able to buy oil for a good while longer, we can expect to pay increasingly higher prices. I suspect that in a couple of years from now we will look back on the days of $75/bbl as the good old days.

OPEC is holding back about 1.5 or 2 MBD of capacity at the moment right? And the nigeria and iraq situations aren't helping anything, but that's another couple MBD that could be online if we could all just get along.

One of these days it'll start to really hurt, and we'll open up more off shore drilling and ANWR. In the meantime, let's keep burning someone elses oil... Seems like I heard there were some big reserves in the Arctic - if we could just figure a way to get that ice to melt, we'd be in good shape.

Steve

 

[Sandor]

I think the lack of U.S. refinery capacity may have been an issue in the recent years, but the larger problem now is that oil producing countries are pumping as much oil as they can, which is about 84 million barrels a day, and world daily demand is at that level and growing. Add to that the fact that a good deal of the world's oil reserves are locked up in politically unstable places like Iraq and Nigeria. I believe the ugly truth is that we are at or near the Peak Oil producing point and slowly but steadily from now on less oil will be pumped from the world's oil fields, while demand will continue to rise. The North Sea's production has been decimated, the Mexican oil field in the Gulf is declining, Iran and Venezuala are ekeing out every drop they can Of course while richer nations like the US will be able to buy oil for a good while longer, we can expect to pay increasingly higher prices. I suspect that in a couple of years from now we will look back on the days of $75/bbl as the good old days.

OPEC is holding back about 1.5 or 2 MBD of capacity at the moment right? And the nigeria and iraq situations aren't helping anything, but that's another couple MBD that could be online if we could all just get along.

One of these days it'll start to really hurt, and we'll open up more off shore drilling and ANWR. In the meantime, let's keep burning someone elses oil... Seems like I heard there were some big reserves in the Arctic - if we could just figure a way to get that ice to melt, we'd be in good shape.

Steve

I think the Russians just laid claim to the majority of the vast Artic area. At least someone is thinking ahead.

 

[BrotherBart]

I think the Russians just laid claim to the majority of the vast Artic area. At least someone is thinking ahead.

Hmmm... Artic oil exploration. Wildcat jackup rigs on the ice. Illegal aliens needing work discussed in another thread.

I think I see a plan in all this somewhere. Hmmm...

Synergism. What a concept.

 

[elkimmeg]

I think the lack of U.S. refinery capacity may have been an issue in the recent years, but the larger problem now is that oil producing countries are pumping as much oil as they can, which is about 84 million barrels a day, and world daily demand is at that level and growing. Add to that the fact that a good deal of the world's oil reserves are locked up in politically unstable places like Iraq and Nigeria. I believe the ugly truth is that we are at or near the Peak Oil producing point and slowly but steadily from now on less oil will be pumped from the world's oil fields, while demand will continue to rise. The North Sea's production has been decimated, the Mexican oil field in the Gulf is declining, Iran and Venezuala are ekeing out every drop they can Of course while richer nations like the US will be able to buy oil for a good while longer, we can expect to pay increasingly higher prices. I suspect that in a couple of years from now we will look back on the days of $75/bbl as the good old days.

OPEC is holding back about 1.5 or 2 MBD of capacity at the moment right? And the nigeria and iraq situations aren't helping anything, but that's another couple MBD that could be online if we could all just get along.

One of these days it'll start to really hurt, and we'll open up more off shore drilling and ANWR. In the meantime, let's keep burning someone elses oil... Seems like I heard there were some big reserves in the Arctic - if we could just figure a way to get that ice to melt, we'd be in good shape.

Steve

I think the Russians just laid claim to the majority of the vast Artic area. At least someone is thinking ahead.

Sandor I know you research this but tell me if I'm right or wrong I believe Mexico reached peak I know long ago we did the North sea seems to gone past peak.
What are the current places peak has arrived or gone past how bad is it

 

[keyman512us]

I thought Hugo Chavez gave you North easterners cheap heating oil?

Yeah, the Kennedy thing is a partnership with Citgo (Chavez).

I'm glad that someone cares about the poor. Bush is giving our (tax) money to ethanol makers instead of helping the poor -" let 'em eat cake and freeze!" is the message.

Truth is, when we buy gas we finance terrorism (Saudis,Iran,Etc.) and also dictators (Putin, Russia) as well as all kinds of other chit. Chavez, by comparison, is a nice guy.

Speaking of CITGO??? Whatever became of the attempted legislation to have the huge Citgo sign behind the green monster at Fenway park removed???

That one 'quietly' disappeared didn't it??? Do you think people said 'enough is enough' bashing of Venezuala...you're not gonna tear down a landmark just because the Pres. doesnt like the other Prez.??? Or do you think all the people getting helped out with the winter bills spoke up???

Both Maybe???

Or perhaps the lawyers' chimed in??? Would be a bad precedence don't ya think??? Pull down the Citgo sign in Boston because of a countries' political views...next thing ya know the 'Golden Arches' start fallingall over the world???

How much you want to bet the first occurence would be in Paris??? ROFLMAO

 

[keyman512us]

I think the Russians just laid claim to the majority of the vast Artic area. At least someone is thinking ahead.

Hmmm... Artic oil exploration. Wildcat jackup rigs on the ice. Illegal aliens needing work discussed in another thread.

I think I see a plan in all this somewhere. Hmmm...

Synergism. What a concept.

Good one BB

Seeing as the clock is ticking...and if drilling in the ANWR isn't approved and the oil production starts to 'dry up'...I'de be willing to bet the Feds will enact legislation declaring the Alyeska pipeline a "strategic national asset" (to prevent it from be dismantled by it's original charter).

If drilling isn't approved...I'm sure it will become 'interesting to say the least'.

Are higher oil prices just an "End Run" by big oil to get public sentiment to sway towards drilling in the ANWR???

 

[webbie]

Speaking of CITGO??? Whatever became of the attempted legislation to have the huge Citgo sign behind the green monster at Fenway park removed???

That one 'quietly' disappeared didn't it??? Do you think people said 'enough is enough' bashing of Venezuala...you're not gonna tear down a landmark just because the Pres. doesnt like the other Prez.??? Or do you think all the people getting helped out with the winter bills spoke up???

The politics of this stuff is so convoluted. On one hand, being a socialist...there is no doubt that Chavez is steering money in his country away from the wealthiest and more to the middle and lower classes. But, of course, that makes US dislike him, probably because we don't want our middle and lowers class (or, more specifically, other latin american countries) getting any bright ideas!

Of course, we have BIG gas outlets here called Lukoil (russian), which in terms of politics (IHMO) is vastly worse than Chavez.

But the very, very, very worst award......beating all the others by a country mile - goes to where most of the worlds imported oil comes from - our "friends" in Saudi Arabia. One out of every two suicide bombers is a Saudi, 3/4 of 9/11 hijackers were, and on and on. Any yet we don't hear anything about how bad they are from the pols and administration. We see them kissing the princes and kings instead.

And, even worse, we have already sold a large chunk of our country to them......
Here are the holdings of ONE Saudi company (keep in mind these companies are usually owned or tied to the government of that country)
http://www.kingdom.com.sa/index.asp?id=51

And don't think they are just a small investor! They own a LOT of stock, and have a say in the operations of some of these companies. Other stuff they own outright.

But I guess that is OK, as long as we remove the Citgo sign.

 

[keyman512us]

Speaking of CITGO??? Whatever became of the attempted legislation to have the huge Citgo sign behind the green monster at Fenway park removed???

That one 'quietly' disappeared didn't it??? Do you think people said 'enough is enough' bashing of Venezuala...you're not gonna tear down a landmark just because the Pres. doesnt like the other Prez.??? Or do you think all the people getting helped out with the winter bills spoke up???

The politics of this stuff is so convoluted. On one hand, being a socialist...there is no doubt that Chavez is steering money in his country away from the wealthiest and more to the middle and lower classes. But, of course, that makes US dislike him, probably because we don't want our middle and lowers class (or, more specifically, other latin american countries) getting any bright ideas!

Of course, we have BIG gas outlets here called Lukoil (russian), which in terms of politics (IHMO) is vastly worse than Chavez.

I always wondered what happened to Getty..lol Just never got to the point of looking it up online. Sen. Joe McCarthy would be rolling in his grave...lol

But the very, very, very worst award......beating all the others by a country mile - goes to where most of the worlds imported oil comes from - our "friends" in Saudi Arabia. One out of every two suicide bombers is a Saudi, 3/4 of 9/11 hijackers were, and on and on. Any yet we don't hear anything about how bad they are from the pols and administration. We see them kissing the princes and kings instead.

Yeah...It still sticks out in my mind though...When I think of K-SA I still look back and think of the bold, brash, and CALLOUS words of the Saudi prince after 9/11 talking to Rudy Giulliani and how Rudy responded by basically telling him to "Keep his (P.O.S.) check" and "Go home"...

And, even worse, we have already sold a large chunk of our country to them......
Here are the holdings of ONE Saudi company (keep in mind these companies are usually owned or tied to the government of that country)
http://www.kingdom.com.sa/index.asp?id=51

And don't think they are just a small investor! They own a LOT of stock, and have a say in the operations of some of these companies. Other stuff they own outright.

...All the more reason to 'dispose of BIG OIL'....

But I guess that is OK, as long as we remove the Citgo sign.

"...What is good for the goose" perhaps we should make OIL advertising go the way of cigarette advertising...lol

...But I would still say keep the Citgo sign...lol That would be a good one...only oil advertising sign left in America???

(sry, just trying my hand at figuring out how to 'custom quote' posts)

 

[TMonter]

WHEN and where have we heard that before??? In the 1970’s,1980’s,1990’s??? YES TO all those years. While I’m not a big fan of ‘government involvement’ some sort of legislation should be in place to FINALLY move this country in the right direction. If alternatives do make any ‘headway’...don’t be surprised if big OIL counters with keeping oil at artificially low prices (like in years past) to drive down economic incentives to advance alternatives.

The price problems in all these years were caused by government intervention in the market, and the 1990's? There wasn't any huge spikes in pricing in relative terms in the 1990's.

 

[pinewoodburner]

Saw this and thought, $78 a barrel of oil, heating oil $2.11. Boy, those where the days. Something you might tell your grandkids. But it was only 8 months ago.

 

[BrotherBart]

Saw this and thought, $78 a barrel of oil, heating oil $2.11. Boy, those where the days. Something you might tell your grandkids. But it was only 8 months ago.

The hell of it is that the underlying fundamentals of oil pricing actually only support a price around $78 today based on availability, inventories etc. It is speculation and the basketball game with the dollar that has it soaring.

 

[TMonter]

Speculation is some of it, but not everything. Refinery capacity is down because of some outages and it's been a longer than average winter.

Besides speculators serve a very important function in a marketplace.

A lot of it has to do with declining dollar values and people moving assets into oil, and other long term commodities.

 

[rdrcr56]

Cheny has been over doing some arm twisting with the Saudis, so we'll see if production increases ;-P

 

[MainePellethead]

Not to mention "old" wells are being uncapped.....some are right next to motels that werent there years ago...yikes....and even near some residential housing....

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47618

 

[mainemac]

Peak Oil is here

I know I know I remember the 70's when they told me we would run out of oil before I could drive! Boy was I an angry adolescent!

I have one friend who travels worldwide for Texaco: he tells me that all the 'easy oil' has been taken. The rest is way offshore, way up North or as noted by Craig in volatile countries like Iraq and Nigeria. Luckily Canada and Mexico has lots of oil, for now. The Prudhoe Bay oil reserves in Alaska are drying up and have to be heated to extract the oil. Not ideal energy effieciency.

Gone are the days when oil bubbled to the surface in PA then OK and TX. Part of the reason we were such a huge military economic and industrial powerhouse in and after WWII was we had excess oil capacity but that came to a halt as noted in the 60's and 70's.

I have heard the argument that ANWAR is the answer but I do not buy it. Our consumption (not to mention China and India) is just too great and continues to grow. There is only enough oil for 6-12 months at current levels in ANWAR , then what? You have trashed part of Alaska then we are out of that oil. More consumption and more drilling is not the long term answer.

It takes Millions of years to make oil from animals plants plankton and we have used up most of it in about 100 years. We do not have a million years to wait around to create more oil.


Conservation is critical as we move OFF oil onto other ways of making heat and electricity: Nuclear? Geothermal? Tidal? Wind? Solar, and yes good old wood !
Tightly insulated houses, plug in hybrid cars, more biking more public transport. I am afraid to say the only way for Americans to conserve or decrease consumption is to have the price of gas stay close to $4.00 a gallon.


Tom

 

[MainePellethead]

Where the heck is grannie and jed clampet when we need them!

Seriously though....whats the story I heard that Colorodo has under the Rockies enough oil to power the colder northeast states for 100-200- years....?

 

[webbie]

Yeah, Aw, another statistic. Unfortunately, we can't have it for the NE....they need it for cars, chemicals, jets and other stuff - war too! Takes a lot of oil to fly tanks around. So the question is more like - how long could it last our whole country? Answer is probably a couple months.

 

[RedRanger]

How is it that Germany when pressed to make synthetic oil during the war did so, and we still don`t? Like, that was 55 years ago,what is wrong with this picture? Like hello, this is not new technology. Do we still have R and D in north america? or has it gone the way of the dinasaur?

 

[mainemac]

" Come and listen to a story about a man named Jed
A poor mountaineer, barely kept his family fed,
Then one day he was shootin at some food,
And up through the ground came a bubblin crude.

Oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.

Well the first thing you know ol Jed's a millionaire,
Kinfolk said "Jed move away from there"
Said "Californy is the place you ought to be"
So they loaded up the truck and moved to Beverly.

Hills, that is. Swimmin pools, movie stars."

Great reference to the Clampetts

I love it Texas tea!

Yes I have heard about the Montana shale oil. The problem with that is again very energy intensive to get the hard shale into liquid, and of course
means the release of more and more greenhouse gasses.

I heard a great talk on renewable energy noting that yes we do have a ton of coal but it is OK to leave it in the ground.
That struck me as somehow un American , uncapitalistic to exploit a resource. That is to NOT go and get the coal. There is no reason however,
why we should feel compelled to blast off mountain tops to get every last drop of coal if we have safe, clean , cheap alternatives.

Unless we get more of us on renewable wood solar wind other we may be forced to go that way.

Tom

 

[MainePellethead]

Yeah, Aw, another statistic. Unfortunately, we can't have it for the NE....they need it for cars, chemicals, jets and other stuff - war too! Takes a lot of oil to fly tanks around. So the question is more like - how long could it last our whole country? Answer is probably a couple months.

Well....if we are giving the contract for new "refueling" planes to Europe then we should make them pay for the fuel too lol

 

[mayhem]

FYI, I just had my tank partially filled yesterday. $3.849 per gallon. I took 150 gallons, so there's another $600 sent to Saudi Arabia.

 

[rdrcr56]

Lost another 1.5 million barrels a day of oil with the bombing of the two pipelines in Basra, betcha Cheny is bummed.

 

[BrotherBart]

Lost another 1.5 million barrels a day of oil with the bombing of the two pipelines in Basra, betcha Cheny is bummed.

He will be happy. Haliburton will get the contract to fix the pipe.

 

[Burn-1]

FYI, I just had my tank partially filled yesterday. $3.849 per gallon. I took 150 gallons, so there's another $600 sent to Saudi Arabia.

I just did about the same amount of damage to my wallet and while it sucks for us now. I got a bit more dismayed at what T. Boone Pickens had to say about the oil market, of course until he mentioned alternative fuels.

"We're spending about $1.5 billion a day -- $500 to $600 billion a year -- on imported oil," he noted. "That's four times the cost of the Iraqi war. We can't continue to do that. In 10 years you will have transferred wealth from the United States to the producing countries of about $5 or $6 trillion. That won't work. I'm not sure what it's going to do to us to remove that much wealth out of this country. We have got to get on alternative fuels in the United States. That's all there is to it."

With those kinds of transfers unless we consume way less, spend less at the government level, or export a lot more we won't have much of currency left. And it's not so hot currently either.

 

[mainemac]

Oil:

Supply low
Demand high
Prices go up

We aint changing supply so we need to change demand

I drive a Prius 45-55 mpg (winter summer)
Would love to get a plug in hybrid add solar panel to charge battery and presto little to no demand for oil

Tom