Fuel cost thread...

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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
LP delivery was yesterday. 291 [email protected]

That's up .10 from the last delivery on 1-20-2021. I'm 95% confident our LP comes from Canada so that disproves the Texas angle.
EDIT after the Sidecar Flip comment I'll add the first LP delivery for the current heating season on 11-25 was also 2.259.

Those numbers also represent a leased tank arrangement.
Even around here, LP comes from Ontario, CA and it runs in concert with gasoline so, whatever pump gas is, the price of propane is usually 50-90 cents below that. I have 2 owned bottles and 2 rented bottles but my supplier charges me a buck a year bottle rental.

Far as 'Kool Aid' goes, When fuel prices are going up like a rocket ship, that tells me something is seriously wrong in DC and I'll leave it at that.

Easy to see what side of the fence Dataman is on and it's not my side either.
 
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ABMax24

Minister of Fire
Far as 'Kool Aid' goes, When fuel prices are going up like a rocket ship, that tells me something is seriously wrong in DC and I'll leave it at that.

Easy to see what side of the fence Dataman is on and it's not my side either.
Politics aren't the issue here. So constantly making political jabs aren't helping your case.

Fuel prices are based on the prices of the commodities they are produced from, crude oil prices are up and has been hovering around $60 for some time, meaning gasoline and diesel prices rise along with it. Natural gas and natural gas liquids pricing are up too, and explains the increase in propane cost.

Energy pricing operates on the principles of supply and demand, and all pricing changes are explained by a change in that balance. The Covid discount pricing of the last year is not the norm, and definitely not sustainable, but that's what happens when global demand suddenly drops by 10% or more. At $30/barrel oil development almost stops, here most of our drilling rigs were racked, frac crews sent home, and construction and maintenance went to bare minimum just to keep equipment going, some equipment was even shutdown waiting on the return of higher prices. Finally at $60 there is a chance of more significant exploration and development happening again.

Everyone wants something for free, and fuel costs are a common target for those that don't know better, but I don't work for free and neither do the companies I work for. Much of the easy oil has been extracted, and what remains is more expensive to produce. Combine that with an uncertain future and companies are no longer willing to invest billions of dollars on oil development to profit cents on the barrel.

If you want to blame someone, blame OPEC and Russia, they have been dumping high volumes of cheap oil onto the global market for a few years now in an attempt to squeeze US and Canadian producers out of the market. But of course that's nothing for most people to complain about, because it actually helps keep prices at the pump low. Now OPEC is curtailing production and oil is returning to normal prices again, and the public finally takes notice.

I'm probably one of the few members on this forum cheering for higher prices, simply because it puts more money in my pocket, here's to $100 oil.
 

JRHAWK9

Minister of Fire
Jan 8, 2014
1,638
Wisconsin Dells, WI
Here in WI, LP prices are trending downwards after spiking around the beginning of March. The screen capture below is from here:

1617549531116.png


I typically call my LP supplier once a month to get the current price so I can update my wood burning spreadsheet. I have yet to call to get April's price though. What we see locally always follows the trend shown on that site though. Last time I called sometime in March LP was $2 a gallon.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
What people seem to not understand is, under the last administration we were a net exporter of energy but when the current administration got it, first thing that happened was a moratorium on new drilling, cutting back on fracking in the Marcellus shale in PA and no new oil leases in Alaska, all by executive fiat plus the shutting down of the Canada pipeline to Texas and that all is contribution to the cost of energy. In this country we have more oil and NG reserves that anywhere else.

The other thing that people don't quite understand and that is, as fuel prices rise, so does the cost to farm and believe me, you food don't come from the market. We grow it. Consequently, As my inputs rise (fuel, fertilizer. pesticides and herbicides) so, as the production costs rise, the cost is passed on to you the consumer. Consequently, expect the cost to feed your face will increase substantially. Double edge sword, you get to pay at the pump plus you get to pay more to eat and last time I checked, food was a necessary item.

I've already increased my end product cost 20% to cover what I anticipate will occur this growing season and your local grocer ain't gonna eat it, he'll pass that along to you.

Whether you like it or not, this country run on fossil fuel energy and it's not just lighting your home and heating it. My tractors don't run on solar, they run on petroleum and I'm not a charity and never will be.

Always keep in mind as you shell out more and more money for the same products you paid a lot less for a year ago that even the cost of pellet will increase because the production costs will also increase and they ain't eating it either.

The propane market is interesting. Propane is really a local priced commodity and I don't bother calling my buddy who owns the local propane company, I just let him do the price anticipation and it it looks like it's gonna jump a lot, he will top off my bottles. I have 4 500 gallon bottle on the property. 2 for the house and two for the grain dryers.

Bottom line is, it's 100% political, like it or not.

Expect your cost of pellets to increase substantially this fall. I'm guessing around 20%, which really has no impact on me because I burn field corn anyway. I do mix in pellets to mitigate the clinkering issue but 1 skid lasts me an entire winter and my corn is basically free, other than dry down cost and harvest costs.

Hope you all got your vaccine shots. We did.
 
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begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
87,129
South Puget Sound, WA
Here in WI, LP prices are trending downwards after spiking around the beginning of March. The screen capture below is from here:
Weekly Wisconsin Propane Residential Price (Dollars per Gallon)
The midwest gets great price breaks on LP. That's wishful thinking in our county. Add a dollar or more to those numbers. Note that the EIA doesn't even include western states in its chart. Florida also has high propane prices while neighbor Alabama does not. What's with that?
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
That's wishful thinking in our county. Add at least a dollar to those numbers.
Most likely and for some reason I never understood, the energy costs increase the closer you get to the West coast and the East Coast, I've always wonder about that.

What really hurts is people on fixed incomes. I'm retired from my day job, but I just switched to farming full time. Was an easy switch too.

I will say that I am glad my buggy gets 40 mpg. That helps. I only drive my big diesel pickup when I need to for farm stuff and I don't fill my wife's suburban, she does. When you drive a bus, it drinks fuel. it's a 100 buck fill up now.
 

begreen

Mooderator
Staff member
Nov 18, 2005
87,129
South Puget Sound, WA
Most likely and for some reason I never understood, the energy costs increase the closer you get to the West coast and the East Coast, I've always wonder about that.
Georgia and New York have much lower LP prices than FL too. There is no govt. regulation of heating oil or propane prices so this may be just getting away with what they can charge. If one goes 60 miles north of Seattle, propane prices are at least $1.50/gal less.
 
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ABMax24

Minister of Fire
In this country we have more oil and NG reserves that anywhere else.

Bottom line is, it's 100% political, like it or not.
Nope, in terms of oil reserves the US ranks 9th, and in terms of natural gas the US ranks 4th. Not anywhere close to having more reserves than anywhere else.

The current oil prices are reflective of current production costs. The US Gov't doesn't have the power to control world oil prices like many Americans claim, partly because the US isn't the big bully on the block anymore, if OPEC wanted $20 oil that's what it would be, if they wanted $100 oil that's also what it would be. The cancelling of the Keystone pipeline doesn't change much either, the oil will just cross the border by rail, CP Rail has just bought an American rail line so they can have trackage to the gulf coast. The US produces its own oil, but the pricing is affected far more by outside factors than the internal affairs of the US. Things like the previous administrations sanctions against Iran also drive up oil prices, and is probably one of the most influential means the US has on affecting world oil prices. Our course China loves this, they are buying up Iranian oil at close to 1 million bpd at a discount because of the sanctions.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Nope, in terms of oil reserves the US ranks 9th, and in terms of natural gas the US ranks 4th. Not anywhere close to having more reserves than anywhere else.
I don't buy that at all. But then you are Canadian and so yours is always more.
 

wishlist

Minister of Fire
Mar 28, 2011
560
Corunna, Michigan
Mid Michigan 2.77 unleaded . I still remember back when I had my first job (pumping gas around 1980 ) full serve was $1.56 gallon and never changed . Memory has failed if that was leaded or unleaded . Lol

Fortunately last summer when off road diesel bottomed out I topped up . Seems like it was just over $1/gallon . That’s just from the covid supply and demand tho as others have mentioned . I see NO politics involved as the reason, in fact , as other have said the biggest reason is OPEC . It’s all supply and demand . Economy is getting back on track which causes demand to rise .

I do wonder how sidecar sets his price on field corn at the elevator ? Farmers did very well last fall here . Excellent yields on beans along with rising prices .
 

ABMax24

Minister of Fire
I don't buy that at all. But then you are Canadian and so yours is always more.
Well according to your own government the US is 10th in oil reserves and 4th in natural gas reserves. Clearly this must be an error due to "the current administration" and "politics in DC".



Screenshot (143).png Screenshot (142).png
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
I do wonder how sidecar sets his price on field corn at the elevator
I don't grow corn or beans or wheat. Never have. I'm a professional forage grower. I sell to feedlots. I like the forage business. Much less headaches. Less equipment costs too.

Most row croppers around here are running on a preset contract price. One of 7 fields I do.
 

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sloeffle

Minister of Fire
Mar 1, 2012
803
Central Ohio
I don't grow corn or beans or wheat. Never have. I'm a professional forage grower. I sell to feedlots. I like the forage business. Much less headaches. Less equipment costs too.
Same here, except I have four legged harvesters eat mine. Even way less inputs than what you have since they don't require petroleum to run. :) I always thought you were a row crop farmer because you are always talking about the "free" corn that you get and the propane for your grain dryers. That's another subject for another day though.

Back on topic - do you sell round bales, idiot cubes, or big squares ? Nice looking hay BTW.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
I own GSI bottom grid dryer bins but I have not used them lately (myself). I get my corn from a buddy down the road that has a huge seed corn operation and the corn I get is off test non coated, non GMO. He usually has at least a couple tons of it every fall. He uses my GSI's to dry down his corn but last year it came off so close to 15, he never used them.

I run rounds 4 x 5's in net mostly. Have a NH 575 small square bailer in the barn that I have not used in about 5 years. I should sell it. Nice bailer. Runs 100% with every option except a hydraulic swing.

Have 2 mowers, a NH Disc Bine side swing and a JD 1020 MoCo, a 3 point tedder, rotary rake and a NH Roll Belt 450 net twine round bailer.

I prefer rounds and I don't even haul them. My feedlot customer drops his semi trailers in the field, I load them up and away they go.

I used to run 'idiot cubes' but it's just too much of a hassle and too much manual labor and idiot cube people don't like to pay either.
 
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sloeffle

Minister of Fire
Mar 1, 2012
803
Central Ohio
That's a pretty sweet deal you have going then. Won't the elevator take it ?

I feel my cows round bales. I have a buddy that I help with idiot cubes in the summer, I'm sure glad when that's over. What a PITA.

Yep, I sold idiot cubes for a short amount of time and had a check or two bounce.
 

Seasoned Oak

Minister of Fire
Oct 17, 2008
7,213
Eastern Central PA
Crude up 188% , Lumber 262%. I just noticed a roll of 12-2 house wire is now $112 at Lowes vs about $60 last yr.

Commodities.jpg
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
That's a pretty sweet deal you have going then. Won't the elevator take it ?
No, because it's either in bags or super sacks, so it would have to be broken down. One thing I have to deal with. I return the super sacks and the skids they are on but the sealed Tyvek sacks I have to dispose of myself as they are not reusable. Everything goes through the automated packing line. I usually have a roast in the spring... just had one actually. Was a mild winter, I have a full ton left over and a couple ton of pellets.

Not worth it for him to do that and it's labor intensive, IOW he has to pay an employee to do it. Easier for him to let me pick it up with one of my tractors and front loader and truck it down here. It's a great deal for me. I have the most expensive to run biomass stove around, considering the to farmer price for a 53 pound bag is (was) last year around 300 bucks. He don't get off test on that much anyway. I might get 4000 pounds a year.

All the off test coated has to go to a hazardous waste landfill and before I started roasting the no germ non coated, it was all getting landfilled. Seed corn has to germinate at 95% or better to be sold. USDA rules.

Who knows what it will be this year, probably 350.
 
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SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Crude up 188% , Lumber 262%. I just noticed a roll of 12-2 house wire is now $112 at Lowes vs about $60 last yr.

View attachment 277570
Of course it's not at all political. I find it interesting that none of this came about until the new administration got 'installed'. Then 'wham', everything went through the roof.... But it's not political right?
 

wishlist

Minister of Fire
Mar 28, 2011
560
Corunna, Michigan
Of course it's not at all political. I find it interesting that none of this came about until the new administration got 'installed'. Then 'wham', everything went through the roof.... But it's not political right?
You first post was not to make it political about fuel prices . Your not helping yourself sidecar .

The new administration won an election.
Same way the previous administration did and the one before that and so on . Accept it and move on . It’s really not that hard of a concept.
When covid hit bad , the economy tanked . We all can probably agree on that . Was it the previous administrations fault ? Nope .
Why were fuel prices so low last summer ? Seems to me there was a huge surplus of crude oil and OPEC didn’t cut output along with Russia until later in the year ? Now demand has risen and supply needs to catch up .
My brother in law has been driving fuel trucks for over 20 years . He fills stations all over mid Michigan. Last summer his hours were cut back to less than 20 hours a week . He’s never worked less than a 40 plus work week . Now he’s working the maximum hours he can under the CDL laws . Same company , same amount of truck drivers . Demand is high right now , it’s not rocket science.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Demand is high right now , it’s not rocket science.
Demand is high because farmers are filling their bulk tanks. I filled mine (500 gallon) before the price jumped, like I knew it would (and it did).
 

JRHAWK9

Minister of Fire
Jan 8, 2014
1,638
Wisconsin Dells, WI
I just called our local LP supplier and got my monthly price update. It's down to $1.70/gal now....down from $2 last month which was down from when it peaked at around $2.35. It's trending down here.
 

SidecarFlip

Minister of Fire
Get it while it's cheap.
 

JRHAWK9

Minister of Fire
Jan 8, 2014
1,638
Wisconsin Dells, WI
I usually top off my tank around August/September sometime. It's still at 63% from being filled to 80% on 9/29/20. It's a 500 gallon tank, so used about 85 gallons in that timeframe between the LP clothes drier, LP water heater and what the furnace used when we are on vacation or just too lazy to light a fire during the shoulder seasons.

My spreadsheet shows a total furnace runtime of 37.9 hours......it's a 75KBTU/hr furnace, so it used about 31 gallons of LP out of that 85.

So 54 gallons to dry our clothes and heat our water in a little over 6 months........under 9 gallons a month. Or about $15 a month at today's LP price.
 
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