Is the reign of the ICE ending?

[begreen]

Tesla passed Ford for the #2 spot on Monday and passed GM to take the #1 spot on the next day. So far this is all Wall St. driven. Could an improvement in battery tech that increases range while decreasing charge time be the final hurdle?
(broken link removed to http://grist.org/briefly/the-market-has-spoken-and-it-said-electric-cars-are-the-future/)

 

[velvetfoot]

I got into my crappy Hyundai Accent and drove it from NY to FL last year for spring training (lots of fans, more expensive).
Then, after a week, I drove it back (19 hours, as I recall).
The final hurdle is a long way off.
How about a 3rd rail? Or catenaries? Maybe on all interstates as a start.
I jest.

 

[Circus]

Tesla passed Ford for the #2 spot on Monday and passed GM to take the #1 spot on the next day. So far this is all Wall St. driven. Could an improvement in battery tech that increases range while decreasing charge time be the final hurdle?
(broken link removed to http://grist.org/briefly/the-market-has-spoken-and-it-said-electric-cars-are-the-future/)

It's only Wall St speculators betting on the next month or so. As far as I know Tesla buys all its cars and converts them to electric.Sort of like the Worldcom illusion fifteen years ago. It's just to easy for anyone to retrofit batteries to an existing car for anyone to have an advantage for long.

 

[begreen]

It's happening, and sometimes in the most ironic ways.
http://www.wymt.com/content/news/Kentucky-Coal-Mining-Museum-converts-to-solar-power-418430563.html

 

[begreen]

It's only Wall St speculators betting on the next month or so. As far as I know Tesla buys all its cars and converts them to electric.Sort of like the Worldcom illusion fifteen years ago. It's just to easy for anyone to retrofit batteries to an existing car for anyone to have an advantage for long.

They are speculating on the success of the model 3 I think. With over 400,000 reservations it will be interesting to see if Tesla can deliver well in a major production mode.

FWIW, there are some distinct advantages to a well designed electric car over a retrofitted one. Most notably it is battery size and location. Most retrofits have a big hump in the trunk that reduces capacity and prevents a fold down rear seat. The Tesla and Volt have the battery lower and hidden. This improves interior space and usability and provides a lower center of gravity for better handling.

 

[jatoxico]

Here is another take on Tesla's valuation. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/06/business/tesla-story-stocks.html

In this analysis Tesla is not really (or only) riding high based on the power plant but on Tesla's investment into safety and the promise to deliver autonomous driving and ride/vehicle sharing ala Uber.

 

[pdf27]

The problem Tesla have is that when it comes to making cars, technology is only a small part of the story. Making them cost-effectively is hard: Tesla haven't had to yet, because they can charge high prices and hence make a lot of profit on an expensive car to make. Problem is that they're heading down-market into terrain dominated by existing car makers, who have their own electric cars already there: Nissan have already sold 250,000 electric cars despite not being an electric car company while Tesla is only at 150,000.

 

[peakbagger]

There are some very interesting fossil fueled engines on the horizon that will keep the ICE around for awhile unless they are legislated out of existence. The fiesta 1 liter ecoboost is quite small but powerful package. The Liquid Piston rotary is also another one to watch out for (note its rotary in name but has a completely different cycle than a Wankel/NSU rotary. There is also homogeneous charge ignition engine that has been right on the cusp of viability for a few years.Fundamentally ICE engines are far cheaper to build as percent of vehicle cost than a current battery and electronic package. That means ICEs will retain the low end of the market. Unfortunately with fuel dirt cheap and an administration dedicated to rolling back mandatory fuel economy, large trucks an SUVs pretty well own the market in the short term.

 

[begreen]

Unfortunately with fuel dirt cheap and an administration dedicated to rolling back mandatory fuel economy, large trucks an SUVs pretty well own the market in the short term.

Nissan have already sold 250,000 electric cars despite not being an electric car company while Tesla is only at 150,000.

The US market is not the largest for electric vehicles. China's is much larger and the growth there is significant. Europe is second. We come in third.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country

 

[velvetfoot]

Yesterday, I ordered a MINI 4 door hardtop with the 1.5 l, 3cyl, 2 stage turbo, 6 speed auto (because of the knees). Doesn't get fabulous mpgs, so it'll probably spin a little high. Should be fun though. It was an impulse buy.

 

[Lloyd the redneck]

I like my intake compression power and exauhst engines. I really like my intake/compression power/exauhst engines. I don't think a battery will ever fit my needs. Maybe just for the fact I can't rebuild it at home , I spose I could but that's some pretty nasty stuff

 

[iamlucky13]

Even with low fuel prices, conditions seem decent for electric car growth as several of the current models have been on the market long enough to demonstrate their viability, and with prices starting to come down. If fuel prices trend back upwards, obviously electrics look even more appealing.

The ICE engine is not going away anytime soon though. We're now 6 years since the Leaf was introduced, and 4 years since the Model S, and the market hasn't quite cracked 1% of sales. The raw numbers growth will definitely accelerate, but even the International Energy Agency, who has a really aggressive target for electric car adoption (even more so than the Paris Agreement), does not seem to be holding out hope for more than 40% of the global passenger vehicle fleet being electric by 2050, and of course, even as the market continues beyond that share, ICE's will continue to dominate where energy density is critical, particularly in freight movements.

 

[Where2]

I got into my crappy Hyundai Accent and drove it from NY to FL last year for spring training (lots of fans, more expensive).
Then, after a week, I drove it back (19 hours, as I recall).
The final hurdle is a long way off.
How about a 3rd rail? Or catenaries? Maybe on all interstates as a start.

Waiting for a Tesla with a trailer hitch and a rental battery system to tow behind to double or triple the vehicle range. Then we'll start to come close to the bladder busting 600-700 mile per fill-up range of the ICE vehicles currently in my driveway.

 

[DBoon]

As far as I know Tesla buys all its cars and converts them to electric.

Sorry to tell you, but what you know is incorrect.

 

[Easy Livin’ 3000]

I like my intake compression power and exauhst engines. I really like my intake/compression power/exauhst engines. I don't think a battery will ever fit my needs. Maybe just for the fact I can't rebuild it at home , I spose I could but that's some pretty nasty stuff

You ought to take a drive in a Tesla to compare the feel of power. Those pesky, heavy transmissions really are a burden. For doing work, on the other hand, I'm with you. And, most of us can't really work on the new ICE vehicles at home anymore either. That's one of the reasons I prefer the "classic" stuff.

 

[Lloyd the redneck]

You ought to take a drive in a Tesla to compare the feel of power. Those pesky, heavy transmissions really are a burden. For doing work, on the other hand, I'm with you. And, most of us can't really work on the new ICE vehicles at home anymore either. That's one of the reasons I prefer the "classic" stuff.

Me too. About 2000 is new enough. I prefer the older stuff

 

[blades]

Work on your car- yes you can but it requires a different way of thinking than in the past. Those lovely( tongue in cheek ) codes are only telling you the result of something amiss- NOT the actual problem- and my friend this is where most shade tree guys gals get in trouble. Not that sensors can't fail but that replacing one is a last resort. One has to think of the section as a whole that the sensor/s are reporting on to address the actual problem. Re-educating younger or less experienced technicians was my primary duty many moons ago- getting them to look at the whole picture of a machine and the flow chart of the cycle was not fun. Like my son recently Gets an intermittent signal of low oil and then a low oil code, calls me - he is all set to replace oil sensor in his GM ( $90) after repeatedly adding oil after an oil change- In his defense it was very bad weather and getting under a low slung car is difficult ( no garage) There were no visible oil puddles or leaks when at temp or after sitting awhile after use, to shorten things up when the oil filter was changed the filter seal of the old one stayed put with the new filter and seal on top so when cold starting it would squirt oil out through the double seals until it warmed up then stop, note: it doesn't do this when the engine is already warm. ( not an uncommon problem). Of course when this happens you are in car driving away and likely never notice the oil spot trail from a cold start.

 

[velvetfoot]

I'll disagree here. In some ways cars may be easier to work on nowadays. The engine and probably auto trans, for sure. I got a cel on my 2005 Silverado for fuel trim and I was able to trace it to a vacuum leak of the brake booster.

Nowadays, there are computer networks in cars connecting an ever increasing number of modules for different aspects of the car. Thing is, stuff other than the engine and trans on the car would be easy to diagnose as well IF you had the proper equipment. I don't think it's required to be publicly available for anything but the engine and maybe trans.

So, for example, my salesman has led me to believe that the heating elements for the seat are already in place even though I didn't get that option. You'd think you could buy the stock switches and cabling, hook it up and voila. I don't think so, because it's likely the 'comfort' module, or whatever, has to be programmed, and that's probably only possible with equipment possessed by the dealer, or...., someone familiar with a hack that can do this with other equipment.

 

[velvetfoot]

Not disagreeing with you, blades.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

I think we'll see cars without drivers being the norm before the ice goes away.

 

[velvetfoot]

uggh
Hey, Uber coming to upstate.

 

[EatenByLimestone]

No idea. It's not likely to affect me.

 

[velvetfoot]

Part of yesterday's budget deal, apparently. Affects us.

 

[Seasoned Oak]

Im surprised the New GM bolt is not doing better. With 238 miles of range it should be a winner ,i wonder what that same battery would do in a pickup truck or SUV, 100 miles AER would be fantastic! Probably too much to ask for.

 

[Easy Livin’ 3000]

Work on your car- yes you can but it requires a different way of thinking than in the past. Those lovely( tongue in cheek ) codes are only telling you the result of something amiss- NOT the actual problem- and my friend this is where most shade tree guys gals get in trouble. Not that sensors can't fail but that replacing one is a last resort. One has to think of the section as a whole that the sensor/s are reporting on to address the actual problem. Re-educating younger or less experienced technicians was my primary duty many moons ago- getting them to look at the whole picture of a machine and the flow chart of the cycle was not fun. Like my son recently Gets an intermittent signal of low oil and then a low oil code, calls me - he is all set to replace oil sensor in his GM ( $90) after repeatedly adding oil after an oil change- In his defense it was very bad weather and getting under a low slung car is difficult ( no garage) There were no visible oil puddles or leaks when at temp or after sitting awhile after use, to shorten things up when the oil filter was changed the filter seal of the old one stayed put with the new filter and seal on top so when cold starting it would squirt oil out through the double seals until it warmed up then stop, note: it doesn't do this when the engine is already warm. ( not an uncommon problem). Of course when this happens you are in car driving away and likely never notice the oil spot trail from a cold start.

Interesting story about the oil seal, glad I stopped changing my own a few years back- it's really hard to reach on my Korean sedan, and nobody seems to want my used oil.

I used to have pipe dreams about getting the code reader and diving in, but really I'm already over my head with my old Wheel Horse tractor.