October heat

[Qvist]

A while to wait yet in WV. Highs in the mid 70s lows in the 60s no heat or AC needed. First frost is usually late October to early November. I need to clean the chimney still but will wait a few weeks. The stink bugs mosquitos and fruit flys
are driving me crazy but they will be around a while.....

 

[fbelec]

that's the reason that i'm looking for the frost is to kill off the bugs. their pretty strong out here now. can't do anything once it hits 5:30 to 6:30 then it's to dark. you get home from work and there is bugs.

 

[fbelec]

and temp wise yes it's warm out there now but the temps you are looking at is the average so we still have some october to go thru

 

[mcdougy]

 

[mcdougy]

Pretty warm here as well

 

[kennyp2339]

I'm not complaining about the warm temps, I like them and it allows me to keep on trucking outside, this weekend I'll be weed whacking the whole perimeter of the yard to make access into the woods for when leave cleanup starts.
The one thing I have noticed on the east coast, while it seems like our Octobers are warmer (especially the beginning) our springs have often been cooler, lots of late frosts, later snows and tons of damp & cold, its almost like everything shifted forward by a month, hell I had the woodstove going that Friday & Saturday this past Memorial Day weekend because of the damp and cold.

 

[Gearhead660]

Abnormally warm here in cheese country. Hasnt been cool enough yet to try out the mini split to see how well it warms up the house. Weather can change quickly though, shorts one day, fire the next.

 

[fire_man]

The one thing I have noticed on the east coast, while it seems like our Octobers are warmer (especially the beginning) our springs have often been cooler, lots of late frosts, later snows and tons of damp & cold, its almost like everything shifted forward by a month, hell I had the woodstove going that Friday & Saturday this past Memorial Day weekend because of the damp and cold.

Yup I totally agree. It's like the seasons "shifted" towards warmer falls and colder springs around here.

I'll update the chart with average temps for this October when they get released by NOAA.

 

[kennyp2339]

I'll update the chart with average temps for this October when they get released by NOAA.

I think averages are harder to follow during transition seasons, it kind of like having 14 70deg f days in a row then a cold front comes through and the temps drop to the upper 40's for 3 days then rebound to upper 50's for the rest of the period, memory would say that it was a warm October due to the first half being 70, but the average temp on paper would indicate the average being only 62.

 

[fire_man]

I think averages are harder to follow during transition seasons, it kind of like having 14 70deg f days in a row then a cold front comes through and the temps drop to the upper 40's for 3 days then rebound to upper 50's for the rest of the period, memory would say that it was a warm October due to the first half being 70, but the average temp on paper would indicate the average being only 62.

Funny you say that, I just said this EXACT same thing to my wife today.
You make a good point of October being a transition month.

 

[mcdougy]

I moose hunt every year 2weeks after canadian thanksgiving (oct16th, this year is the hunt) and more years than not, we have warm t shirt black fly days, then ice on the puddles, then a light skiff of snow, then t shirt weather. This has been the same for the last 20 years. October is definitely a transition month.

 

[Caw]

55-60 and cloudy/damp here today so I'm getting my paint curing burn in while I'm home for the day. Fire alarms have only gone off once so far!

 

[BCC_Burner]

I wake up every day grateful that I'm not any younger (I'm 32) and that I've decided to never, ever breed. The planet has been destroyed by the parasitic cancer that is humanity. The second half of the 21st century is going to be ugly on an unprecedented scale worldwide. Thanks a lot, Boomers.

 

[Caw]

So interestingly I find that the metallic paint I used (SBI OEM paint) looks a lot more matte finish than I expected after a curing burn. It's not what I expected but im not mad, I think it looks pretty sharp.

Is this normal @begreen @bholler ?

 

[begreen]

According to PE our stove's factory paint is StoveBrite metallic black. That color is more of a dark grey than StoveBrite's satin black and not sparkling with metallic flakes either. The finish is not flat, there is a soft sheen to it, but it's not as black as satin or flat black.

 

[Caw]

Yeah that's interesting. My gut tells me it's basically never going to match the factory fresh look but like I said, I'm happy with how it came out. It's different but still looks nice. Here's the paint I used:

 

[begreen]

Based on your pictures the color and finish look very similar to StoveBrite's satin black. I wonder who makes the paint for them?

 

[EbS-P]

I think averages are harder to follow during transition seasons, it kind of like having 14 70deg f days in a row then a cold front comes through and the temps drop to the upper 40's for 3 days then rebound to upper 50's for the rest of the period, memory would say that it was a warm October due to the first half being 70, but the average temp on paper would indicate the average being only 62.

Averages really don’t convey the max and min deviations from the average. Hence why averages with out standard deviations can be miss leading.

 

[stoveliker]

What is most illustrative, is a graph of records. When records fell (got updated), both positive (high temps) and negative (record lows). For a system that is not changing, records will still be broken - but infrequently, and, most importantly, record breaking happens equally on bother sides of the bell curve.

Currently, records are overwhelmingly broken on the high temperature side of the bell curve. There are of course record lows being broken too, but far less frequently than record highs.

I.e. the bell curve is changing in an asymmetric way, tailing to higher temps.

 

[fire_man]

I think the symetry of the bell curve stays intact but the bell curve itself "shifts to the right".
Statistics was never my thing but that's how I understand it.

There is still the same probablity of getting low temperatures and high temperatures within the bell curve, its just that the temperatures themselves all shift higher in the "new climate".

 

[stoveliker]

I think the symetry of the bell curve stays intact but the bell curve itself "shifts to the right".
Statistics was never my thing but that's how I understand it.

View attachment 283082

But that is a schematic,.and it is incorrect. If you plot all records broken last xx years, you'll see more records broken at the high temp side than at the low temp side. Hence it is asymmetric.

(Nite talking about distribution of temps, as in that graph, is not what I did; I talked about a graph of records being broken.)

I've seen that (plot of broken records) graph with actual data. And it's not symmetric any more.

Can't find it online now, though.

 

[fire_man]

I see what you mean - It makes sense that if the average temps are increasing, more high temp records would be broken than low temp records. If more high temp and low temp records were BOTH being broken, the bell curve would get wider on both ends but the average temp would stay the same.

 

[stoveliker]

I see what you mean - It makes sense that if the average temps are increasing, more high temp records would be broken than low temp records. If more high temp and low temp records were BOTH being broken, the bell curve would get wider on both ends but the average temp would stay the same.

Yes. Better said than I did.

 

[fire_man]

A less noticed temperature trend is that the overnight lows are getting higher at a faster rate than daytime highs.
This certainly plays into the averages.

 

[rudysmallfry]

I was just starting to think about getting into chimney cleaning/wood stacking mode, but we're still consistently in the 70's in CT so no need so far. I did just get a new supposedly completely silent stove top fan that runs on convection heat. I hate the sound of my blower, so it will be cool if it really is silent. While I'll be happy to light up, I'm fine with perfect fall weather for now.