planning for the 22nd century - a house buying guide

[smirnov3]

lately, I have been thinking about what society will be like in the 22nd century. Now that's pretty far out there still, but it occured to me that if you buy a house to live in, (or are helping your kids buy a house), then you need to think about stuff like this, because chances are, you'll be looking to sell that sucker 30-40 years down the line.

So my thinking is this: Fossil fuels are getting more & more expensive to extract (as we have to go deep in the ocean or into war zones to get them) Obviously, alternative energy sources will get developed, but they will cost money to build. So transportation costs will go way up

Also, since fossil fuels are used to make fertilizer, 'regular' produce prices will also shoot up, to the point that organic food is going to be price competitive (or cheaper). But many organic farming methods are designed for small scale farms, and have not been tested for 'scaling up' to commercial farms

so here are my thoughts on buying a house that will maintain its value

1) make sure that public transportation is available
2) make sure that job/ shopping / entertainment are close by (the exurbs are going to DIE)
3) small local farms are going to be good for the resale avalue also

obviously, towns close to Metro areas are good, but which metro areas will thrive?
Historacly, coastal cities are more likely to get rebuilt rather than abandoned (in-land cities often rely one a singe resource - a big company, or a university (or a railroad). it that goes, so does the town). just make sure that you aren't going to get flooded out if the ocean level rises a couple of feet.

just some musings

 

[Highbeam]

You've got to have water and electricity. Water for your crops and survival, electricity for your heat and transportation, entertainment, etc. You've got to live in a reasonably warm climate so that local food will grow and so that you don't spend too much energy trying to make heat to survive the winter.

I do think that fossil fuel powered devices will become rare but I also believe that they will be replaced by another technology that will be at least as effective so don't worry about being close to the city. Do be close enough to the city that you will have dependable electricity. I expect nuclear power to save our butts but that's because I know how well it works on the naval vessels.

When thinking ahead like this you have to assume that there will either be civilization or that we will be like savages in the woods trying to survive. Let's assume that civilization exists.

 

[smirnov3]

You've got to have water and electricity. Water for your crops and survival, electricity for your heat and transportation, entertainment, etc. You've got to live in a reasonably warm climate so that local food will grow and so that you don't spend too much energy trying to make heat to survive the winter.

Yeah, I forgot about the water issue (and it WILL become an issue)
several regions in USA are running out of water, and will have to start using desalinized salt water. Besides the expense (with current energy prices, desalinized water cost about 30-50% more than water from a reservoir. as energy prices go up, that will increase), there is the issue of infrastructure investment - if politicians wait until the last possible moment to build the plants (as politicians usually do), then much of the local ground water will be brackish = few green areas

I do think that fossil fuel powered devices will become rare but I also believe that they will be replaced by another technology that will be at least as effective so don't worry about being close to the city.

Yes, in the long term. but when those alternative power plants / fuels are first developed, the companies that own them will need to recoup their research & construction costs. So cost of fuel will be high. And studies have shown that as fuel prices go up, property values in exurbs go down.