j-takeman said:
Bigjim13 said:
Harman Lover 007 said:
j-takeman said:
Lousyweather" date="1302535329 said:
IMHO, you are seeing the lowest prices right now, and those will likely change VERY SOON!
I get that "2008" feeling all over again. Low fiber supply/mills in slow down mode/Higher oil prices are only the start of it. I suspect stove sales to take off and more demand on fuel than the supply can really handle. The painted picture doesn't look very pretty.
It doesn't look bad right now peeps, But mark our words. Something is going to hit the fan! I sure hope your all listening!
I wonder how many cries we will hear come fall? :red:
We will hear plenty of crying and you can count on that. We are headed for $4 a gallon gas here in the NE very soon and pellets will follow the trend.
Until the $4/gal gas crashes the economy again and prices plummet back down one more time. Businesses are just now starting to increase hiring, the economy is to fragile formprices tongi up more and stay there- at least with gas anyway.
Also for every plant with a fiber shortage there is another one that is humming right along, there are more plants now and more pellets on hand than there was in 2008. I could be wrong, just how I see it.
We are just messengers spreading the word of warning. Whether or not people listen isn't up to us.
I see the well know pellets being scarce by fall, There will be fuel available but it may not be what you wanted and for the price we are seeing now. I see chipped log brands taking up the slack of what the usual brands can't provide. Even though the BC softwoods don't have a fiber issue, They also might be scarce as the fuel will stay local and not make its way to us on the east coast.
One other note is oil futures have a large effect on its price. The economic factor plays a roll. But if futures are strong, I don't see it loosing ground.
I am ready, Are you?
no, Jay, Im not ready. Being in the business, I hope that all who can afford it procure product now, and I can say it until I am blue in the face, but all too often its shrugged off to my "ulterior motives" of being provocative and trying to sell product by building the fears of others. Through contracts, planning, we can only procure so much product, when its gone, its gone. Unfortunately, we arent a pellet manufacturer (or maybe fortunately), and at some point these rising fuel prices WILL cause the price to increase. What I alluded to above is that I feel these increases will be quite soon. We are still selling stoves, selling pellets at a much increased rate over this time last year, so I have to feel some folks are "seeing the elephant" as well. I also feel I must re-iterate that in buying pellets try to buy them for fairly soon pickup or delivery. Buying pellets now for fall I feel will be a folly this year. If the retailer actually has the inventory on the ground to cover ALL of their sales, then good, but if not, its a gamble. If they run out, the BEST you can hope for is a return of your money, which you will then have to go and use up 9and then some!), to procure fuel from another supplier, at a (likely) much greater cost.
Assuming a mill had an unlimited supply of fiber (doesnt happen), they still only have a set amount of driers, etc to actually MAKE the pellet- only 24 hous in a day! And then there is the trucking....the pellets have to get from the mill to the retailer....if fuel is expensive, so wont be the trucking....logistics certainly plays a factor here. Whats the downside to buying now?
Well, off of my soapbox!
!
