EV vs ICE

[DBoon]

Yeah, classic GM marketing move.

 

[EbS-P]

And for some international perspective. I’d be shorting Tesla stock if I liked to gamble.

Oil prices remain low. Electric rates are going up do to data center. Giant customers will get the best rates and residual customers will pay for the incentives offered for the data centers to choose who they buy power from.

My question is how long will Kia and Hyundai stay in the US EV market?

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[woodgeek]

And for some international perspective. I’d be shorting Tesla stock if I liked to gamble.

Oil prices remain low. Electric rates are going up do to data center. Giant customers will get the best rates and residual customers will pay for the incentives offered for the data centers to choose who they buy power from.

My question is how long will Kia and Hyundai stay in the US EV market?

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Probably.

Alternatively, the nat gas drillers realize they can make more money liquifying it for sale overseas (and to New Englanders), keeping domestic prices finite. Power gets expensive and we have a huge market (not govt) incentive to build out solar and wind. Which both can be built out in years, and rush to market before the nuke folks even have their pants on.

So maybe we have a 2 year electric price shock (outside New England). And folks get an object lesson in the cheapness of renewables.

And the EV market rolls on. Maybe Elon gets bought out (or taken off the face of the brand, as Tesla spins off their AI and humanoid business into a separate company he owns/manages). And then Tesla-cars is the sole EV maker in the US with access to state of the art 'Asian' EV tech.

Predicting the future is HARD.

 

[EbS-P]

Probably.

Alternatively, the nat gas drillers realize they can make more money liquifying it for sale overseas (and to New Englanders), keeping domestic prices finite. Power gets expensive and we have a huge market (not govt) incentive to build out solar and wind. Which both can be built out in years, and rush to market before the nuke folks even have their pants on.

So maybe we have a 2 year electric price shock (outside New England). And folks get an object lesson in the cheapness of renewables.

And the EV market rolls on. Maybe Elon gets bought out (or taken off the face of the brand, as Tesla spins off their AI and humanoid business into a separate company he owns/manages). And then Tesla-cars is the sole EV maker in the US with access to state of the art 'Asian' EV tech.

Predicting the future is HARD.

exact outcomes are hard, but It was clear the EV and green energy subsidies were a target once project 2025 went public. We will be now completely (just like before) reliant on foreign technology and production capacity for batteries whenever we come around to recommitting to reducing global warming. The talent that designs the new technologies will follow the production overseas. That will take time to rebuild the research base that incubates cutting edge technologies.

there will be winners. And choosing to build battleships in the era of autonomous drones and missle probably won’t be winners in the short term.

 

[salecker]

Ever ever buy the first model year of new design!

All the time, after they are about 12-25 years old...
I have never bought a new vehicle,and unless i win a lottery i never will.
All of my personal vehicles are other peoples cast offs, my car has been rolled, one of my pickups was rolled, the other was given to me as it needed a power steering pump, battery and tires
Having a Tow truck means never having to buy personal transportation. And it was rolled before it got turned in to a tow truck

 

[EbS-P]

Ever ever buy the first model year of new design!

That should have read “NEVER ever”

 

[woodgeek]

exact outcomes are hard, but It was clear the EV and green energy subsidies were a target once project 2025 went public. We will be now completely (just like before) reliant on foreign technology and production capacity for batteries whenever we come around to recommitting to reducing global warming. The talent that designs the new technologies will follow the production overseas. That will take time to rebuild the research base that incubates cutting edge technologies.

there will be winners. And choosing to build battleships in the era of autonomous drones and missle probably won’t be winners in the short term.

Aaaaand,Tesla has discontinued the S and X models. Fremont will now be converted to making Optimus humanoids.

 

[begreen]

European EV sales passed ICE sales in the most recent report.

Electric car sales edge above petrol in EU for first time

Sales of fully electric cars surpassed those of petrol-only vehicles in the European Union for the first time in December, data from ‌the auto industry group ACEA showed on Tuesday, even as hybrids held onto the largest overall share of the market.

www.reuters.com

At this rate US car sales are going to end up islanded, only sold domestically, in the next decade. However, some good news is that the administration's attempt to shut down the Federal charger buildout program has been ruled illegal.

Trump administration unlawfully suspended EV charger infrastructure program, US judge rules

A federal judge on Friday ruled President Donald Trump's administration unlawfully suspended funding awarded to support the expansion of electric vehicle charger infrastructure, in a victory for 20 Democratic-led states that sued over the action.

www.reuters.com

 

[EbS-P]

Aaaaand,Tesla has discontinued the S and X models. Fremont will now be converted to making Optimus humanoids.

That’s not surprising. They needed a redesign. More than just adding more power. They are selling a Model Y long wheelbase in China. It’s the size of the X but with normal doors.

 

[EbS-P]

since the Tesla is on the shop I drove our 2012 RAV4. We bought it new. Only repair has been an AC compressor when the coolant flow sensor failed. It only has 44k miles. It could easily be a 200k mile vehicle.

Kids will start driving in a few years. I’m going to need a fleet. Getting a fleet of 2012 RAV4s has crossed my mind. Simple to service. Port injection.

I don’t see as realistic to get a fleet of used Teslas. Insurance for teen drivers in Teslas must be off the charts. Maybe Nisan leafs if they all stay local. Maybe a Fleet of Prius plug ins? I’m trying to kick my Tesla habit early. Shopping new cars now so I know what to buy used in three years. I need to stop at the Kia and Volvo dealer and sit in some seats.

 

[woodgeek]

since the Tesla is on the shop I drove our 2012 RAV4. We bought it new. Only repair has been an AC compressor when the coolant flow sensor failed. It only has 44k miles. It could easily be a 200k mile vehicle.

Kids will start driving in a few years. I’m going to need a fleet. Getting a fleet of 2012 RAV4s has crossed my mind. Simple to service. Port injection.

I don’t see as realistic to get a fleet of used Teslas. Insurance for teen drivers in Teslas must be off the charts. Maybe Nisan leafs if they all stay local. Maybe a Fleet of Prius plug ins? I’m trying to kick my Tesla habit early. Shopping new cars now so I know what to buy used in three years. I need to stop at the Kia and Volvo dealer and sit in some seats.

Bolts are better than LEAFs.

 

[bogieb]

since the Tesla is on the shop I drove our 2012 RAV4. We bought it new. Only repair has been an AC compressor when the coolant flow sensor failed. It only has 44k miles. It could easily be a 200k mile vehicle.

Kids will start driving in a few years. I’m going to need a fleet. Getting a fleet of 2012 RAV4s has crossed my mind. Simple to service. Port injection.

I don’t see as realistic to get a fleet of used Teslas. Insurance for teen drivers in Teslas must be off the charts. Maybe Nisan leafs if they all stay local. Maybe a Fleet of Prius plug ins? I’m trying to kick my Tesla habit early. Shopping new cars now so I know what to buy used in three years. I need to stop at the Kia and Volvo dealer and sit in some seats.

I know a couple of people in an Ecoflow FB page, who also have solar, love Riviens. I think those are really expensive - but really have no idea how the price stacks up to other EVs or if there is a used vehicle market here in the US yet.

 

[EbS-P]

I know a couple of people in an Ecoflow FB page, who also have solar, love Riviens. I think those are really expensive - but really have no idea how the price stacks up to other EVs or if there is a used vehicle market here in the US yet.

I’m to the point I need something that can be serviced locally. 5 hour round trip to drop off then again to pick up—-I’m done with that!

 

[begreen]

I’m to the point I need something that can be serviced locally. 5 hour round trip to drop off then again to pick up—-I’m done with that!

A close-by dealer was one of the reasons we have had a Prius, then the Volts. The Kia dealer is further away, but fortunately, it has only had to go in once for a recall update to the charging software.

 

[EbS-P]

recall update to the charging software.

So no over the air updates? They aren’t the only one but I find that a strange choice.

 

[begreen]

So no over the air updates? They aren’t the only one but I find that a strange choice.

Yes, that is the usual protocol that we normally use. They have been for maps and user interface updates. The recall required disconnecting the high voltage battery I think. It was more of a firmware update and needed verification testing under instrumentation.

 

[EbS-P]

Yes, that is the usual protocol that we normally use. They have been for maps and user interface updates. The recall required disconnecting the high voltage battery I think. It was more of a firmware update and needed verification testing under instrumentation.

Possibly not even code written by Kia. Teslas whole vertical integration makes sense on some levels.

 

[bogieb]

A close-by dealer was one of the reasons we have had a Prius, then the Volts. The Kia dealer is further away, but fortunately, it has only had to go in once for a recall update to the charging software.

And that is the reason, when I was looking at used hybrids several years ago (2018 or so), I decided it wasn't for me. Closest service over towards Boston - no thanks. I don't even want to have to go 30 miles to Concord, if something went wrong, it would have to be towed and it's $85 just to get towed 2.5 miles away (in 2021, probably more now).

 

[EbS-P]

And that is the reason, when I was looking at used hybrids several years ago (2018 or so), I decided it wasn't for me. Closest service over towards Boston - no thanks. I don't even want to have to go 30 miles to Concord, if something went wrong, it would have to be towed and it's $85 just to get towed 2.5 miles away (in 2021, probably more now).

Our family has never had a Toyota towed. That said my cousin I guess had the block crack on his. I imagine something (and full out guessing here) that 70% of the population lives within 45 minutes of a Toyota dealership.

 

[woodgeek]

Came across an interesting article about DC fast chargers in the US, and how they've grown in the last few years.

It includes lots of midwest and mountain west routes that we have discussed around there parts.

Upshot is that there are now 12,000 separate DC fast charging stations, and a total of 60,000 charger 'stalls' in the US. This is a mix of Tesla and non-Tesla, but many EVs nowadays (like mine) can use BOTH networks.

My first EV road trip (the 100 miles from Philly to NYC) in 2014, there were a total of 3 DCFC stalls along the route (the busiest part of I-95 BTW). And they are all 24 kW or lower power, versus to 150 kW minimum nowadays. What a difference 10 years makes.

 

[EbS-P]

Came across an interesting article about DC fast chargers in the US, and how they've grown in the last few years.

It includes lots of midwest and mountain west routes that we have discussed around there parts.

Upshot is that there are now 12,000 separate DC fast charging stations, and a total of 60,000 charger 'stalls' in the US. This is a mix of Tesla and non-Tesla, but many EVs nowadays (like mine) can use BOTH networks.

My first EV road trip (the 100 miles from Philly to NYC) in 2014, there were a total of 3 DCFC stalls along the route (the busiest part of I-95 BTW). And they are all 24 kW or lower power, versus to 150 kW minimum nowadays. What a difference 10 years makes.

The next 10 years will be interesting.

 

[old greybeard]

We’re buying a new compact suv. We need to be able to travel 450-900 miles a day, fully loaded. Can’t see a ev being practical now or in 5 years. We do 13-14 hours straight drives occasionally. 7 hours very common, planning a 3 week swing camping our way west. Boondocking off grid.
Looked at hybrids. $10k more, heavier and no full sized spare. 30mpg vs 50mpg gives $4k in fuel savings over 100k. Bank the $10k saved and the disparity is even greater.
I like the idea of a ev, but zero logical or practical reason to own one.

 

[EbS-P]

We’re buying a new compact suv. We need to be able to travel 450-900 miles a day, fully loaded. Can’t see a ev being practical now or in 5 years. We do 13-14 hours straight drives occasionally. 7 hours very common, planning a 3 week swing camping our way west. Boondocking off grid.
Looked at hybrids. $10k more, heavier and no full sized spare. 30mpg vs 50mpg gives $4k in fuel savings over 100k. Bank the $10k saved and the disparity is even greater.
I like the idea of a ev, but zero logical or practical reason to own one.

RAV4 plug in hybrid. EV mode probably would cover most or all of daily needs 42 miles of electric range. What are your electric rates?

 

[bholler]

We’re buying a new compact suv. We need to be able to travel 450-900 miles a day, fully loaded. Can’t see a ev being practical now or in 5 years. We do 13-14 hours straight drives occasionally. 7 hours very common, planning a 3 week swing camping our way west. Boondocking off grid.
Looked at hybrids. $10k more, heavier and no full sized spare. 30mpg vs 50mpg gives $4k in fuel savings over 100k. Bank the $10k saved and the disparity is even greater.
I like the idea of a ev, but zero logical or practical reason to own one.

Your numbers aren't making sense the difference between hybrid and regular price is not 10k if you are comparing comparable equipt vehicles

 

[old greybeard]

Your numbers aren't making sense the difference between hybrid and regular price not 10k if you are comparing comparable equipt vehicles

RAV4 plug in hybrid. EV mode probably would cover most or all of daily needs 42 miles of electric range. What are your electric rates?

Plug ins make zero sense for long highway trips. Which will be 90% of this vehicles usage.
Spent all day yesterday at a local auto show. Didn’t see a decent hybrid suv for under $36k, thats before tax and tags. We’re quoted $30k otd for a well equipped ice.
Even at $5k difference, which you’re not going to see otd, you’re not saving much if any money .
Same as in 2006 when I bought a 36mpg Focus for $14k new otd. Friend bought a Prius, $24k. Math didn’t work. Focus still running original clutch and rear brakes, 170k miles. Her Prius is long gone.
Not even factoring in the human costs of battery production.

And this is ice vs ev debate, please show me a ev that can do 900 miles in 14 hours. Didn’t even bring up towing, what can tow a 2200lb teardrop as far, and fast as my Frontier. We came back from Yellowstone in 4 days, boondocking several times. Solar works on my camper and off grid house. Electric sure can’t do the job towing or traveling.