Norway on track to reach 100% EV sales in the next 2 years

[woodgeek]

I'll answer EbS-P's post by quoting woodgeek's.

That's literally 44% more! That "only $8k" difference might as well be $50k to most people actually shopping $16k new vehicles. The fraction of our population buying $16k vehicles, who could easily afford $24k, must be vanishingly small.

FWIW, I found a similar differential higher end vehicles, but without the "way bettter". Tesla's largest "SUV", really a glorified 5-seater hatchback, compared to Escalade and Durango SRT. The Tesla was $109k, versus Durango and Escalade both $65k - $75k. But the Durango and Escalade could tow a tandem-axle trailer and seat 7 with room to spare in back and on roof rack for luggage and a kayak, whereas the Tesla could do none of these things.

The entry level trim of the Bolt is more like $20k after rebate, versus the $16.7k entry level sonic.

With the tax rebate applied to a lease contract at time of acquisition, a Bolt lease would be maybe 20% higher than a sonic lease. (like $60/mo). And you could make that up on gas easily. Lower TCO every month you own the vehicle.

And the Bolt is a much larger vehicle with more leg and headroom.

 

[EbS-P]

I'll answer EbS-P's post by quoting woodgeek's.

That's literally 44% more! That "only $8k" difference might as well be $50k to most people actually shopping $16k new vehicles. The fraction of our population buying $16k vehicles, who could easily afford $24k, must be vanishingly small.

FWIW, I found a similar differential higher end vehicles, but without the "way bettter". Tesla's largest "SUV", really a glorified 5-seater hatchback, compared to Escalade and Durango SRT. The Tesla was $109k, versus Durango and Escalade both $65k - $75k. But the Durango and Escalade could tow a tandem-axle trailer and seat 7 with room to spare in back and on roof rack for luggage and a kayak, whereas the Tesla could do none of these things.

Didn’t do the math but we’re probably taking 150$ a month more on the loan payments. I’m spending 60$ to drive 1000 miles say 30 mpg can is being replaced. That’s a 60$ savings. So it’s costing 90$ a month more. Figure in no oil changes. Saves 10$ a month.
So it’s 80$ a month. Cell phone plan range. MSRP on a base Bolt with tax credit and it’s the same cost.

 

[DBoon]

I believe these numbers are disingenuous,

Your mileage may vary, as they say
https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...attery-electric-vehicles-have-lower-scheduled

4 cents/mile difference x 20,000 miles/year = $800.

 

[Ashful]

What kind of weight do you tow with the SRT? It does have a pretty beefy tow rating.

Wife actually downgraded the Durango to an R/T at time of purchase, in spite of me, but it's her car. But to answer your question, we only regularly tow boats with the Durango, not very heavy. However, I like having it as backup on the 7000 lb. firewood trailer, for the almost-inevitable day when I'm hauling a load of logs and my truck collides with a deer.

Your mileage may vary, as they say
https://www.energy.gov/eere/vehicle...attery-electric-vehicles-have-lower-scheduled

4 cents/mile difference x 20,000 miles/year = $800.

That's crazy, DBoon! Although it's not stated where they got this data, or what vehicles were included, I think it must have included a lot of older vehicles. If you think about it, who really ever needs transmission service, spark plugs, O2 sensor, or timing belts on a vehicle before 100k miles? And what fraction of the BEV's on the road today have over 100k miles?

To be useful, I think this would need to be plotted vs. years or miles, so that one can see the change in costs per mile change with age.

 

[SpaceBus]

Wife actually downgraded the Durango to an R/T at time of purchase, in spite of me, but it's her car. But to answer your question, we only regularly tow boats with the Durango, not very heavy. However, I like having it as backup on the 7000 lb. firewood trailer, for the almost-inevitable day when I'm hauling a load of logs and my truck collides with a deer.


That's crazy, DBoon! Although it's not stated where they got this data, or what vehicles were included, I think it must have included a lot of older vehicles. If you think about it, who really ever needs transmission service, spark plugs, O2 sensor, or timing belts on a vehicle before 100k miles? And what fraction of the BEV's on the road today have over 100k miles?

To be useful, I think this would need to be plotted vs. years or miles, so that one can see the change in costs per mile change with age.

I think all of the data is assuming you are buying either option new and keeping them for five to ten years, not a new EV vs old ICE or whatever.

 

[bholler]

Wife actually downgraded the Durango to an R/T at time of purchase, in spite of me, but it's her car. But to answer your question, we only regularly tow boats with the Durango, not very heavy. However, I like having it as backup on the 7000 lb. firewood trailer, for the almost-inevitable day when I'm hauling a load of logs and my truck collides with a deer.


That's crazy, DBoon! Although it's not stated where they got this data, or what vehicles were included, I think it must have included a lot of older vehicles. If you think about it, who really ever needs transmission service, spark plugs, O2 sensor, or timing belts on a vehicle before 100k miles? And what fraction of the BEV's on the road today have over 100k miles?

To be useful, I think this would need to be plotted vs. years or miles, so that one can see the change in costs per mile change with age.

Many transmissions need service at 60k I have done o2 sensors as early as in the 50ks. And if an o2 sensor goes your probably going to foul plugs.

Hell one of our dodge vans had 2 transmissions and a rear diff by 75k.

 

[woodgeek]

That's crazy, DBoon! Although it's not stated where they got this data, or what vehicles were included, I think it must have included a lot of older vehicles. If you think about it, who really ever needs transmission service, spark plugs, O2 sensor, or timing belts on a vehicle before 100k miles? And what fraction of the BEV's on the road today have over 100k miles?

To be useful, I think this would need to be plotted vs. years or miles, so that one can see the change in costs per mile change with age.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that today's BEVs will not need new spark plugs, O2 sensors, timing belts or transmission service before or after 100k miles.

 

[bholler]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that today's BEVs will not need new spark plugs, O2 sensors, timing belts or transmission service before or after 100k miles.

That's true. Lol. But to be fair most ice vehicles don't either. Although I don't agree with letting plugs in for 100k they might work that long but they don't come out well after that long

 

[Shank]

The entry level trim of the Bolt is more like $20k after rebate, versus the $16.7k entry level sonic.

With the tax rebate applied to a lease contract at time of acquisition, a Bolt lease would be maybe 20% higher than a sonic lease. (like $60/mo). And you could make that up on gas easily. Lower TCO every month you own the vehicle.

And the Bolt is a much larger vehicle with more leg and headroom.

I am semi curious what leases would be like on a Bolt.

 

[Ashful]

I think all of the data is assuming you are buying either option new and keeping them for five to ten years, not a new EV vs old ICE or whatever.

What's your basis for this assumption? I cannot see any reason to assume they're excluding cars over 5 or 10 years old from this data. To me, it appears the data indicates averages, with the average ICE on US roads being very well-documented at over 12 years.

The trouble is that, even if we pretend this data is valid (which it's not), it still never comes close to closing the cost gap.

Here's some real simple math, using DBoon's $0.101 vs. $.061/mi maintenance, our national average fuel prices over the last 20 years (bouncing equidistant from $2.75/gal for 20 years), 18 mpg average for an R/T Durango, $0.169/kWh national average electric prices, and 2.7 mi/kWh for a Tesla X.

First, base package, no options, the thing no one actually buys:



Next, one loaded up with the typical smattering of heated leather seats, half respectable stereo, blind spot protection, etc.



This gap ain't small, folks, I can literally buy three ICE's for comparable TCO to two BEV's... which is precisely what I did!

edit: actually, the gap just grew even worse! Dodge dropped their pricing another $1k from the numbers I had used above.

References:

FOTW #1190, June 14, 2021: Battery-Electric Vehicles Have Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs than Other Light-Duty Vehicles

The estimated scheduled maintenance cost for a light-duty battery-electric vehicle (BEV) totals 6.1 cents per mile, while a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) totals 10.1 cents per mile.

www.energy.gov

U.S. annual gasoline prices 2024| Statista

Gasoline prices in the United States have experienced significant fluctuations over the past three decades, with 2024 seeing an average price of 3.3 U.S.

www.statista.com

Tesla Model X Real Range & Battery Capacity / New vs Used / Winter vs Summer

These insights are generated by a team of battery scientists that studies thousands of Teslas. Get the latest data on the Tesla Model X.

www.recurrentauto.com

2024 Dodge Durango 3rd Row SUV | SRT® 392 & More

Discover the 2024 Dodge Durango three-row SUV. Explore available SRT® models, engines, all-wheel drive, trims & more on this Dodge SUV here today.

www.dodge.com

 

[EbS-P]

What's your basis for this assumption? I cannot see any reason to assume they're excluding cars over 5 or 10 years old from this data. To me, it appears the data indicates averages, with the average ICE on US roads being very well-documented at over 12 years.

The trouble is that, even if we pretend this data is valid (which it's not), it still never comes close to closing the cost gap.

Here's some real simple math, using DBoon's $0.101 vs. $.061/mi maintenance, our national average fuel prices over the last 20 years (bouncing equidistant from $2.75/gal for 20 years), 18 mpg average for an R/T Durango, $0.169/kWh national average electric prices, and 2.7 mi/kWh for a Tesla X.

First, base package, no options, the thing no one actually buys:

View attachment 308879

Next, one loaded up with the typical smattering of heated leather seats, half respectable stereo, blind spot protection, etc.

View attachment 308880

This gap ain't small, folks, I can literally buy three ICE's for comparable TCO to two BEV's... which is precisely what I did!

edit: actually, the gap just grew even worse! Dodge dropped their pricing another $1k from the numbers I had used above.

References:

FOTW #1190, June 14, 2021: Battery-Electric Vehicles Have Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs than Other Light-Duty Vehicles

The estimated scheduled maintenance cost for a light-duty battery-electric vehicle (BEV) totals 6.1 cents per mile, while a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) totals 10.1 cents per mile.

www.energy.gov

U.S. annual gasoline prices 2024| Statista

Gasoline prices in the United States have experienced significant fluctuations over the past three decades, with 2024 seeing an average price of 3.3 U.S.

www.statista.com

Tesla Model X Real Range & Battery Capacity / New vs Used / Winter vs Summer

These insights are generated by a team of battery scientists that studies thousands of Teslas. Get the latest data on the Tesla Model X.

www.recurrentauto.com

2024 Dodge Durango 3rd Row SUV | SRT® 392 & More

Discover the 2024 Dodge Durango three-row SUV. Explore available SRT® models, engines, all-wheel drive, trims & more on this Dodge SUV here today.

www.dodge.com

I don’t see an R/T on par with the base Model X 0-60 times. So from a performance perspective they just aren’t equal.

I don’t think from a tech perspective they are equal either. If don’t know anything about Dodge’s self driving abilities. If those don’t matter to you you throw a big part of a Tesla’s appeal out the window. How about in car entertainment and navigation. Again don’t know about Dodge. Are they not equivalent.?

Closer comparison would be a Lexus in my mind. https://www.lexus.com/models/LX

 

[Shank]

I don’t see an R/T on par with the base Model X 0-60 times. So from a performance perspective they just aren’t equal.

I don’t think from a tech perspective they are equal either. If don’t know anything about Dodge’s self driving abilities. If those don’t matter to you you throw a big part of a Tesla’s appeal out the window. How about in car entertainment and navigation. Again don’t know about Dodge. Are they not equivalent.?

Closer comparison would be a Lexus in my mind. https://www.lexus.com/models/LX

Part of the issue there is nothing in the segment to compete with the average larger SUV buyer's needs. I don't really need or want an equivalent to a $90k plus ICE vehicle but that is my only option.

 

[EbS-P]

Part of the issue there is nothing in the segment to compete with the average larger SUV buyer's needs. I don't really need or want an equivalent to a $90k plus ICE vehicle but that is my only option.

I agree. And that will be the case for at least the next 2 years maybe more. Towing capacity and range will be difficult for a BEV to complete with an ICE for full size SUV with the current battery tech. Which is where Toyota could score a win with their hybrid twin turbo V6. Just add add enough battery capacity to get a tax credit and stay under the 80 K limit.

 

[Ashful]

Closer comparison would be a Lexus in my mind. https://www.lexus.com/models/LX

This is probably true, but the Lexus does not meet my desires for towing and cargo, which the Dodge does.

BTW, my mom owns two Lexus LX's, so I have some experience driving them, and I loathe the things. Downright frightening in highway maneuvering, with their soft suspension on a short but tall platform.

Also, since when have Tesla's been self-driving? I know two family members now waiting up to 5 years each on their Teslas, for the self-driving update they were promised would be completed 4 years ago. Talk about bait and switch.

Self Driving: Can Tesla Drive & Park Itself? | CarShtuff

Teslas are known for their advanced driver-assist technology. But can a Tesla really drive and park itself?

www.carshtuff.com

 

[Ashful]

I should have added, as much as I've been arguing against BEV's in the last page or two, you'll be surprised to hear I'm in favor of them. I can't wait for the day when their prices reach a point near parity with ICE's, as they're clearly the superior tech for most of my driving needs. I'm only arguing that this day has not yet arrived.

 

[EbS-P]

This is probably true, but the Lexus does not meet my desires for towing and cargo, which the Dodge does.

BTW, my mom owns two Lexus LX's, so I have some experience driving them, and I loathe the things. Downright frightening in highway maneuvering, with their soft suspension on a short but tall platform.

Also, since when have Tesla's been self-driving? I know two family members now waiting up to 5 years each on their Teslas, for the self-driving update they were promised would be completed 4 years ago. Talk about bait and switch.

Self Driving: Can Tesla Drive & Park Itself? | CarShtuff

Teslas are known for their advanced driver-assist technology. But can a Tesla really drive and park itself?

www.carshtuff.com

I got my cameras replaced last week and should be “self driving” now but they messed something up in the swap so now I have no gps or any thing that relies on cameras! 2.5 hours drive to the service center to see what the fix is. I’m make a list of stuff to repair.

 

[woodgeek]

I am semi curious what leases would be like on a Bolt.

I leased a '22 Bolt last May. The price came in about $500 over MSRP (which was higher at that time, and no rebate). They offered a 0.59 residual after 39 months and 32,500 miles, and a (then) very low finance rate through GM Financial. I put minimum down, like $1k.

I drove 100 miles for the deal, local dealers either had no product, or were charging well over MSRP.

I think I read that the new rebate can be collected by the dealer and applied to the lease contract. This is good for those who don't pay $7500 per year in taxes and those that don't want to wait until next tax year to get their money.

I did this in 2015 when I leased a Nissan LEAF... the dealer rolled the whole rebate into the lease contract.

There is so much uncertainty about resale prices of EVs in a few years (in both directions) leasing makes sense to me. If the resale is higher than 0.59*MSRP, I can buy the car for 0.59*MSRP and sell it myself at a profit. If it is worth less, I can hand it to the dealer and walk away from a loss. Heads I win, tails he loses.

Upside: GM sent me a check for $5400 after they dropped MSRP by $6300 a few weeks after I leased.
Downside... my state charges extra taxes on car leases.

 

[begreen]

That's true. Lol. But to be fair most ice vehicles don't either. Although I don't agree with letting plugs in for 100k they might work that long but they don't come out well after that long

I think the popular Subarus need the timing belt replaced at 80 or 90k. There were some Volvos that needed it earlier. It's not that uncommon. FWIW, a friend had her 2018 Ford Escape transmission fail at 98,000 miles. The transmission shop said they see a lot of them around that mileage. A lot of these repairs get expensive because they add "while we are at it" recommendations. Things like water pumps and tensioners are often included.

 

[bholler]

I think the popular Subarus need the timing belt replaced at 80 or 90k. There were some Volvos that needed it earlier. It's not that uncommon. FWIW, a friend had her 2018 Ford Escape transmission fail at 98,000 miles. The transmission shop said they see a lot of them around that mileage. A lot of these repairs get expensive because they add "while we are at it" recommendations. Things like water pumps and tensioners are often included.

Yes Subarus absolutely do need timing belt by 100k at latest I hadn't heard of Volvo but certainly possible.

And yeah many have transmission issues before 100k. Ford has had many recently. Dodge was horrible for a while as well

 

[begreen]

Volvo varied with the engine. The B23 engine was at a crazy 40k miles for a while. Eventually, they got it up to 70k. Now I think it's 100k. (It was the same on the older VW TDI motors.) Volvol engines are all interference engines so one dare not neglect this service.

PS: Looks like Mazdas, BMWs, and several Chrysler corp motors are in the 60-100k range too.

 

[Ashful]

Volvo varied with the engine. The B23 engine was at a crazy 40k miles for a while. Eventually, they got it up to 70k. Now I think it's 100k. (It was the same on the older VW TDI motors.) Volvol engines are all interference engines so one dare not neglect this service.

PS: Looks like Mazdas, BMWs, and several Chrysler corp motors are in the 60-100k range too.

Can't speak to the timing belt recommendation on the old B23, but we had a series of a few Volvo T5 turbos, last one was a 2010 V50 T5 R-design. I do recall a recommendation to have the timing belt replaced, but not until something like 125k miles. We always aimed to trade or sell them before that time.

The B23 was a 4-cylinder they started making in the 1970's, and discontinued in mid-1990's, if I recall correctly. I had one in college, with way over 160k miles on it, and the timing belt never failed, but the body did rust out to the point of being condemned by my local state inspection office.

 

[old greybeard]

Harrowing images of cobalt mines in Congo where kids dig for $2-a-day


https://mol.im/a/11668015

 

[bholler]

Harrowing images of cobalt mines in Congo where kids dig for $2-a-day


https://mol.im/a/11668015

Ok that clearly is horrible. But do you eat chocolate? Anything containing palm oil? Anything from Chevron Dow Coke?

Why is it only the environmental and human rights issues associated with EVs that you take issue with?

 

[SpaceBus]

What's your basis for this assumption? I cannot see any reason to assume they're excluding cars over 5 or 10 years old from this data. To me, it appears the data indicates averages, with the average ICE on US roads being very well-documented at over 12 years.

The trouble is that, even if we pretend this data is valid (which it's not), it still never comes close to closing the cost gap.

Here's some real simple math, using DBoon's $0.101 vs. $.061/mi maintenance, our national average fuel prices over the last 20 years (bouncing equidistant from $2.75/gal for 20 years), 18 mpg average for an R/T Durango, $0.169/kWh national average electric prices, and 2.7 mi/kWh for a Tesla X.

First, base package, no options, the thing no one actually buys:

View attachment 308879

Next, one loaded up with the typical smattering of heated leather seats, half respectable stereo, blind spot protection, etc.

View attachment 308880

This gap ain't small, folks, I can literally buy three ICE's for comparable TCO to two BEV's... which is precisely what I did!

edit: actually, the gap just grew even worse! Dodge dropped their pricing another $1k from the numbers I had used above.

References:

FOTW #1190, June 14, 2021: Battery-Electric Vehicles Have Lower Scheduled Maintenance Costs than Other Light-Duty Vehicles

The estimated scheduled maintenance cost for a light-duty battery-electric vehicle (BEV) totals 6.1 cents per mile, while a conventional internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) totals 10.1 cents per mile.

www.energy.gov

U.S. annual gasoline prices 2024| Statista

Gasoline prices in the United States have experienced significant fluctuations over the past three decades, with 2024 seeing an average price of 3.3 U.S.

www.statista.com

Tesla Model X Real Range & Battery Capacity / New vs Used / Winter vs Summer

These insights are generated by a team of battery scientists that studies thousands of Teslas. Get the latest data on the Tesla Model X.

www.recurrentauto.com

2024 Dodge Durango 3rd Row SUV | SRT® 392 & More

Discover the 2024 Dodge Durango three-row SUV. Explore available SRT® models, engines, all-wheel drive, trims & more on this Dodge SUV here today.

www.dodge.com

I don't understand why we would look at the maintenance costs for a used ICE, but a new EV. That kind of data can't really be compared. Comparing the data for TCO only works when looking at buying both new. Otherwise there are too many variables.

 

[sneefy]

I think the popular Subarus need the timing belt replaced at 80 or 90k.

All current model Subarus use a timing chain, not belt. No replacement interval.