Fair enough then. I can totally support that as long as you are against them across the board
Why so much hate over electric vehicles?
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EbS-P
Minister of Fire
How many miles of range do you need during an emergency.m?
I think 50-60 gets you out of immediate danger. Hurricanes you have warnings for. Tornadoes not enough time to drive and safer to shelter in place. That leaves wildfires. Those are terrible move fast but I would rather be in an EV than be sitting on 20 gallons of extremely flammable liquid.
Grid goes down you can’t get gasoline.
Having evacuated a hurricane I dont find the EV less safe compelling. I was ready to strap 15 gallons of gas to my hitch carrier when I thought there might not be gas in the way. That was a dumb idea. I didn’t do it. Everyone 15 miles from the coast had gas available not much of a line. There might be a longer line at a charging station on an evacuation route because of more traffic but again 49 miles from the coast it’s probably not to long. Now Florida is its own special case.
kennyp2339
Minister of Fire
Actually my career is with a rather large electric utility, you are correct about in your milage assumptions for small scale, and things would work way better if the majority of people follow evacuation orders, but when a disaster occurs, the essential people still need to travel, like myself, doctors, nurses, police, fire, ems, road depts, ect.. At the end of my shifts there's no hotel accommodations available when working locally, your simply go home and rest then come back, I've gone home to a dark house many days in a row while working a 16-18hr day helping fix the problem, fuel was made available to us so we could travel back and forth, it would be impossible to charge a vehicle onsite since even we were running on generator at the shop, most of the men and women that work in my geographic area travel upwards of 50miles one way for there commutes, As the same with many other people.
Hotels were all filled with either local residents or mutual aide workers, simply no room for local essential workers on top of that.
Then you'd have to imagine what would life be like when everything is operating on electricity, our new bucket trucks are hybrid, but electric pickups on an essential front line might be a new norm in the next 10yrs, volunteer fire and ems works, they respond from their homes, I think the US has 75% of all emergency workers as volunteers, how will that work?
While I think that ICE bans will be very late, postponed and or ineffectual, I also assume that any bans would have commercial/utility/EMS vehicles be completely exempted.
My sis also works for her CT utility, and does lots of 16 hour 'storm duty' shifts. She often worries about getting enough gasoline when there are a lot of outages.
Its not clear to me that EVs and fast chargers would be that much different. Given the high loads on most fast charger sites, I think they have pretty heavy duty and often underground service connections, rather than being fed via long aerial lines strung through overgrown suburbs. Some fast chargers also have their own storage and backup power solutions. The govt could incentivize (or just mandate) that a certain amount of backup power has to be available at certain fast chargers in the future.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
Electric Emergency vehicle will become common in 5 years. Emergency managers will just need to include EV charging in thier emergent plans. Seems simple to me. Most schools will have EV bus fleets. Municipalities, Counties or states should have plans to either have backup generators permanently on site or plans to have them staged prior to events and deployed within 36 hours. Furthermore emergency operation centers should be planning on charging essential EVs on their generators. These could be public charging stations during regular usage periods.
This like all changes just needs planning and some infrastructure investment to be a non issue. Tesla already has mobile charging stations that they deploy when a site goes down or they know will see very high demand. The solution exists those in charge need to be made aware of the issues and take appropriate actions.
In short disaster response will become more complex but not any more complex than they have dealt with in the past.
Absolutely. It's hard to do a real direct comparison because I was replacing an inferior quality car with one that was much higher quality.
I'm working from memory, but I'll put this out there (and I am sure it will be challenged and/or generate complaints about the incentives)
| ICE Compact Car (e.g., Mazda 3) | Chevy Bolt | |
| MSRP | $27,000 decently equipped | $42,000, absolutely loaded |
| Incentive | $0 | $7500 Federal, $2000 NY |
| Price after Incentive | $27,000 | $32,500 |
| Features | Decently equipped | Absolutely loaded |
| MPG/MPGe | 40 mpg | 120 MPGe (estimated) or ~4 mi/kWh |
| Mileage driven/year | 20,000 miles | 20,000 miles |
| Fuel Price | $3.50/gallon | $0.12/kWh |
| Fuel Cost/Year | $1,750 | $600 |
| Insurance Cost/Year | $1,000 | $1,000 (yeah, same - no difference) |
| Maintenance Cost/Year - Years 1-5 | $1,000 (estimated) | $600 (tires cost a little more) |
| Maintenance Cost/Year - Years 6-10 | $1,800 (estimated) | $1,000 |
| 200,000 mile cost of ownership | $63,5000 | $51,500 |
| Ride/Wind Noise | Not Terrible | Very Quiet |
| Cornering Ability | Average | Excellent (low center of gravity) |
| Acceleration | Below Average | Excellent (6 second 0-60 mph) |
| Interior Room - people and stuff | Below Average / Small (hatchback) | Large |
| Fun Factor | Not Very | High |
I think I said payback was 80,000 miles. The above supports that. TCO for 200k miles is very favorable.
Note that I bought the Bolt before it became heavily discounted. I have friends buying used ones for $21k with 25,000 miles on them (this year). Also, I didn't include the cost of my Level 2 charger ($2k where I lived at the time, now I charge in my barn with a 3.3 kWh TurboCord plugged into a 240V/20A outlet - TurboCord cost $200).
I agree with the two groups, but would add a Group 3.
Group 3 is just really resistant to and/or scared of change of any kind, for lots of different reasons. Maybe they are getting older and just don't want to have to learn something new or adapt anymore, or change makes them anxious, or whatever. This group will find all sorts of reasons to never change, and will be happy to provide all sorts of good reasons why they won't make the change (e.g., lack of charging infrastructure for long trips, unreliable public charging, lack of range, etc. etc.). I don't put some earlier posters who described very real-world situations of living in isolated areas, not having access to indoor garage to charge in the winter, not having power to a garage, etc. into Group 3, just for the record.
No matter what you do for them, Group 3 will never change but will make you think they will if only you did the right things for them. Group 1 is excited about the change, Group 2 dreads the change but presumably can be won over at some point (e.g., there is no price premium, there are as many public chargers as gas stations, etc.), but Group 3 will never change unless they have absolutely no choice or they die before they have to change.
Someone who rents an apartment might philosophically align with Group 1 but have Group 2 limitations on real-world charging. I get that - that is a solvable problem for that Group 2 person.
The ICE maintenance costs seem low. How do one get 100,000 mi (5 yrs @ 20k/yr) out of a set of tires on an ICE car? The best I have ever done is around 40k, and some were 30k depending on the brand. The years 6-10 ICE maintance number is low too if a timing belt and water pump need replacing. There are usually some idlers, belts, etc. that go with that. Also, pollution controls start acting up around then and how about a muffler?
Never having owned one, I looked it up. A Mazda 3 will cost about $5,409 for maintenance and repairs during its first 10 years of service according to this site:
Mazda 3 Maintenance Schedule and Costs
Maintenance for a Mazda 3 will cost about $5,409 after 10 years. View Mazda recommended scheduled maintenance for the 3.
caredge.com
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I'm not for or against electric vehicles. I'd like to have one in my fleet as an option, and it would be a fun autocrosser! I couldn't have one as my only option, and it doesn't make economic sense to have another vehicle, so I don't. I actually went and looked at an affordable EV recently. With snow tires, in subzero weather, there was some doubt that it would even get me to the nearest Costco, and it sure wouldn't get me back. Costco sells gas, but they don't sell electrons. That will change, I'm sure, but I don't want anybody further mucking up my life by punishing me for using the only thing that works for me right now - ICE.
The electric vehicle that I just can't figure out is this: https://www.altec.com/altec-collaborates-on-first-fully-electric-vehicle-in-the-us/
PG&E is going to need every service vehicle they have working around the clock for weeks or months to put the grid back together after the next really big earthquake. I'm afraid the execs in San Francisco might not be able to see the consequences of converting their fleet to these through their green glasses. Am I and a number of like-minded PG&E employees I know missing something?
Historically, the govt has had a somewhat longer list of national security industries beyond oil and gas. They would add aerospace, food/feed, autos, and most recently chips.
The importance of autos (where factories can and have been repurposed to weapons production historically) has lead to many bailouts and market protections over the years. The current structure of the $$$ EV incentives explicitly favors domestic production, which is getting the US heat in the WTO (which the US will ignore). That feature was sold to key senators as a national security issue when the IRA passed. An income means test was added to prevent 'rich folks' from getting free money... most of my coworkers are not eligible for any fed EV rebate, nor am I.
National security is also how the CHIPS act passed.
Now, if you think EVs are an epic blunder of some sort, then this seems like a stupid move contrary to national interests. But the analysts in the govt (as well as at the auto makers themselves) have all concluded that in 10 years the US will have EITHER a major industry making EV autos, or ZERO auto industry.
The ICE maintenance costs seem low. How do one get 100,000 mi (5 yrs @ 20k/yr) out of a set of tires on an ICE car? The best I have ever done is around 40k, and some were 30k depending on the brand. The years 6-10 ICE maintance number is low too if a timing belt and water pump need replacing. There are usually some idlers, belts, etc. that go with that. Also, pollution controls start acting up around then and how about a muffler?
Never having owned one, I looked it up. A Mazda 3 will cost about $5,409 for maintenance and repairs during its first 10 years of service according to this site:
Mazda 3 Maintenance Schedule and Costs
Maintenance for a Mazda 3 will cost about $5,409 after 10 years. View Mazda recommended scheduled maintenance for the 3.caredge.com
100k on an ICE tire set isn’t impossible. If it does mainly highway miles it’s very possible especially on a good set. I get about 60k out of a set of tires on my truck and that’s with barely rotating them. It actually surprised me how little mileage people get out of Ev tires.
I have 103k on my truck, my exhaust system is perfectly fine, my belt and idlers are still going, water pumps in a properly maintained coolant system (coolant system flushed at recommended intervals) should last quite a while. The only expenses on my truck have been regular maintenance.
You said you’ve never owned an ICE? I dont see how unless you’ve used public transit your whole life until recently. Unless you meant owned one until 100k.
Its subjective to a large extent, and everybody will have a different opinion based on their own real-world experiences (good and bad). I've tried to make the comparison a little more favorable to ICE vehicles in this regard so the comparison isn't just a bogus slam-dunk compare of EV vs. ICE.
Having said that, I've read from numerous sources that there is about a $1000 (average) yearly maintenance cost difference between BEV and ICE cars. How much mileage per year this is based on is hard to know (this is rarely published). But just four oil changes a year (every 5k miles at a low $70 each using the normally required synthetic oil for a car driven 20,000 miles per year) is nearly $300 (and probably more - last time I paid for an oil change was 5 years ago).
And that $5409 doesn't include tires, assumes 15,000 miles per year, and doesn't assume any unforeseen non-warranty repairs. Let's just add 33% to that to get to 20,000 miles per year then add 4 sets of tires at $800 a set and you are at $10,400, or $1040 per year without unforeseen non-warranty repairs. I had estimated $14,000 over the 10 year period, which I think is pretty conservative. It's probably more.
Side note: I do realize that I will likely hear from many on this forum about how repair free Japanese cars are, and I put all those comments through a filter of my own experiences with a truly crappy 2002 Toyota Tacoma and also talking with many neighbors who would tell me "I've never had to do anything with my Honda/Toyota/Mazda/etc." and only when I queried them further with a "Really? Nothing? No brake pads, calipers, maybe a muffler replacement or the oddball water pump failure or clogged fuel injector replacement" to then hear "Well, yeah, I have to do stuff like that too."
I routinely got 50-60k miles on a set of low-rolling resistance tires for a 2600 pound compact car, usually without rotating them on a regular schedule. If I had bought tires with high mileage ratings then 80k miles would have been possible. With a 3600 pount BEV, I get about 35k on the stock Michelin low-rolling resistance tires. I did switch to the version of the tire that doesn't have self-sealing in the event of a leak and that has about a 15% deeper tread, so I expect I will do a bit better with those. Of course, once I switched to the non self-sealing tires I had a screw through a tire and caused a flat 1500 miles from home on a Friday at 5pm. An eternal thanks to the friendly repair shop in Wisconsin who bailed me out of that one, and a good reason to always keep a tire pump in your car (I always travel with a bike pump in my trunk).
I think the reason for the reduced tire life is maybe 50% just the heavier vehicle weight and 50% the higher torque at start up speed. I'm pretty careful not to have too much fun, but that low-end startup torque is pretty addicting and hard to not enjoy.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
They will bring in mobile charging. it’s not a difficult problem to solve. They still must transport fuel to the fleet now. They won’t work the trucks around the clock. Mutual aid crews will arrive with their own chargers. The thing about power companies is they know exactly where still has power and where will get it next. Charging trucks is just another planning step. They better do some disaster tabletop exercises.
sloeffle
Minister of Fire
My car ( Avalon ) has 101k on it and I've never replaced that "stuff". Never replaced that "stuff" on the my previous vehicle ( CR-V ) or my ex's ( Venza ) vehicle. Most modern vehicles have timing chains ( Subaru and some others don't still ) on them that never need replaced unless there's some kind of catastrophic failure. At that point the engine is probably junk. I've never replaced a muffler on any vehicle I've owned in the last 30 years, and I generally sell or trade them in when they start approaching 200k miles.
The only maintenance I've done to my car so far is routine maintenance. I just put on my second set of high mileage ( 60k miles ) Michelin tires. Maybe I'm easy on tires but my most of the tires I've bought of the last X amount of years have easily lasted 50k miles. If I remember right, they are around $200 a tire all in. The spark plugs will need replaced next time I go in and I was told it's around a $700 job because the intake plastic, and a bunch of other stuff needs taken off to get to the back three cylinders. If I had a four banger I could do it myself for $20.
sloeffle
Minister of Fire
The Japanese fanbois are about as bad as the Tesla fanbois. Every car company has their duds, Toyota and Honda included. The engine on ex-wife's Toyota blew up with around 190k on the clock.
kennyp2339
Minister of Fire
This isnt meant to bash anyone, but the whole balance of ice vs electric is feeble to me, the US grid isnt ready, to those that simply state, put the lines underground, your sorely mistaken, main line, ampacity, infrastructure, it isnt as easy as a whiff of a pen signature, lots go into underground utility planning, and when there's a fault on that specific line, the repair takes much longer and way more expensive.
Utility right of way laws also need to become universal and change to allow much more grace (which is highly unlikely to happen due to big business issues with individual land owners, towns and states)
Specifically look at NJ, everyone hates power outages from storms and such, the board of public utilities recommends a tree trimming schedule of 4 year cycle times with a 10ft min clearance to any power line, issue here is while this is a "board recommendation" when I knock on your door to say were trimming, the resistance by both landowners and townships that want to be called "tree cities" come out kicking and screaming, everyone wants reliability but no one wants there tree removed from there yard, just kick the can down the road because we are the bullies.
California is allowing PG&E to start converting overhead to underground, the expense is huge, and the time its going to take is insane, more or less this project is almost impossible to complete in anyone's lifetime and will more then likely be shelved after an earthquake when its realized that the amount of repair work simply out weighs the benefit of overhead.
We arent there yet in tech, sure cities or large population area's can spring forward and have success with careful planning, but this is almost equivalent to what is happening in NY state at the moment, the large population in the city area or "down state" is pushing for new laws that would have dire consequences for those that live upstate in a more rural region, same with Oregon with the Portlands peoples votes on state laws that are negatively affecting those in the farmlands in the eastern part of the city.
Utility right of way laws also need to become universal and change to allow much more grace (which is highly unlikely to happen due to big business issues with individual land owners, towns and states)
Specifically look at NJ, everyone hates power outages from storms and such, the board of public utilities recommends a tree trimming schedule of 4 year cycle times with a 10ft min clearance to any power line, issue here is while this is a "board recommendation" when I knock on your door to say were trimming, the resistance by both landowners and townships that want to be called "tree cities" come out kicking and screaming, everyone wants reliability but no one wants there tree removed from there yard, just kick the can down the road because we are the bullies.
California is allowing PG&E to start converting overhead to underground, the expense is huge, and the time its going to take is insane, more or less this project is almost impossible to complete in anyone's lifetime and will more then likely be shelved after an earthquake when its realized that the amount of repair work simply out weighs the benefit of overhead.
We arent there yet in tech, sure cities or large population area's can spring forward and have success with careful planning, but this is almost equivalent to what is happening in NY state at the moment, the large population in the city area or "down state" is pushing for new laws that would have dire consequences for those that live upstate in a more rural region, same with Oregon with the Portlands peoples votes on state laws that are negatively affecting those in the farmlands in the eastern part of the city.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
The grid is not ready today for five or ten or twenty years from now. But that’s not a fair comparison. Yes we need more electrical Infrastructure and we will build it out. It it not some insane usage that we are unable to plan for. Watch this.
Likewise. There is no way to avoid hills where we live and a lot of the roads are curvy. I would estimate that 90% of our driving is on this type of road. Brakes, suspension, and tires do wear more under these conditions. It's the opposite of level land highway driving.
The grid not being ready right now to completely switch to EV's isn't any kind of news. Our whole country's infrastructure isn't ready for much change, but change is coming. Our grid isn't ready for cold or hot weather extremes either as proven in the last few years. So should we upgrade or just let it limp along? What happened to the country that wanted to be the leader in technology?
We started on the right path after the shock of the Arab oil embargo in the 70s, but then someone reversed course, starting with pulling off the solar panels on the WH. That set the tone for the 1980s.
EbS-P
Minister of Fire
This comes down to cost. Should the any infrastructure be built to handle 100% of the scenarios thrown on its way at the really high extra cost or should it handle 99.5% of what what’s possible and spend the extra savings on disaster planning?? Texas is an example of what not to do.
No one would pay for a doubly redundant power grid that guarantees 100% up time.
100k miles isn't too tough to get to without unforeseen maintenance items, but between 100-200k and definitely 150-200k, things start to age out, regardless of brand, and my comment is really directed at the 100k+ maintenance.
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