Electricity from wood pt. 2

[woodgeek]

I don't know about second homes....but we do have a lot more per capita commercial/retail space than other countries.

And a penchant for super-sized appliances of all kinds. And second fridges.

Looks like 85% of GB homes have natgas space heating:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...at-britains-housing-energy-fact-file-2011.pdf

 

[Ashful]

Second fridges are so 1970's. Now it's third or fourth fridges. ;-)

<-- sitting on five, only cuz I just sold two...

 

[Mt Bob]

Um, Bob, you can still find incandescent bulbs on store shelves all over the US, listed as 'decorator' bulbs, 'appliance' bulbs, flood lights, 'can' lights, etc. And it doesn't matter. Most have switched.



We do use about 2x as much energy overall as in the UK. The electricity thing is partly I think a function of the US never building out its natural gas network completely. Maybe 50% of US homes have access, so we end up using a lot of electric for space heating/stoves/etc.

And then there is the ubiquitous air conditioning and clothes dryers.

??? Certain wattage bulbs have been outlawed,same as uk.Speciality (vainity,etc.)bulbs have been given a lee period.The new incasadent bulbs that "pass the standards" cost 5 times more,they only got certified because they put a reflector in the lamp(same as headlights for many years)to "use more of the energy instead of wasting it".Please do not tell me I am wrong,when I go to home despot and a pack of 3 100 watt bulbs(that used to cost about 1.99) now costs 8.99,but meet the new gov.standards,but it will hurt your eyes when you try to read by them.Do a little research,this is not a new thing,just most people pay the price and do not have a clue.

 

[woodgeek]

??? Certain wattage bulbs have been outlawed,same as uk.Speciality (vainity,etc.)bulbs have been given a lee period.The new incasadent bulbs that "pass the standards" cost 5 times more,they only got certified because they put a reflector in the lamp(same as headlights for many years)to "use more of the energy instead of wasting it".Please do not tell me I am wrong,when I go to home despot and a pack of 3 100 watt bulbs(that used to cost about 1.99) now costs 8.99,but meet the new gov.standards,but it will hurt your eyes when you try to read by them.Do a little research,this is not a new thing,just most people pay the price and do not have a clue.

All I know is that despite the 'ban', the light bulb shelf in my local grocery store somehow has more incandescent bulbs than any other kind. And a lot of them appear to be simple glass bulbs with tungsten filaments. I haven't bought one in ~10 years, so I will have to trust you on the price trends...

I thought most people just bought the cheap curly bulbs these days.

 

[Ashful]

All I know is that despite the 'ban', the light bulb shelf in my local grocery store somehow has more incandescent bulbs than any other kind. And a lot of them appear to be simple glass bulbs with tungsten filaments. I haven't bought one in ~10 years, so I will have to trust you on the price trends...

I thought most people just bought the cheap curly bulbs these days.

We're not far apart, woodgeek, but I've seen a pretty drastic shift away from incandescent bulbs in our local stores. Whereas it was 80% incandescent just 10 years ago, now it's probably only 30%. I also haven't seen these internal reflector bulbs bob mentions, just standard bulbs and good old fashioned (r20/r30) reflector bulbs.

As to the ban, it hasn't affected me as much as I anticipated. Most of the bulbs I buy are clear / decorative anyway, and I've even taken to using clear 40W and 60W bulbs in my enclosed ceiling fixtures, whereas I used to often use soft white. The only place I'm willing to use CFL's or LED's is in utility areas, like garage or boiler room.

I'm still stunned by the choice to ban certain incandescent bulbs. Seems to me a "luxury tax," which set incandescent pricing closer to that of CFL's or LED's, would have been the better way to handle the situation, from all perspectives.

 

[woodgeek]

One could argue that the higher energy bills already constitute a luxury tax relative to other bulb types. People are just set in their ways.

 

[Slow1]

One could argue that the higher energy bills already constitute a luxury tax relative to other bulb types. People are just set in their ways.

I suspect that if the behavior we want to modify is greater conservation, then raising energy prices is the way to go rather than outlawing any particular tech. Unfortunately such things are very unpopular - imagine adding a 50% 'tax' on electricity for example to really get folks to conserve more? Likely if it stuck I would expect to see behaviors change a bit. Maybe not for everyone, but some folks would (at least for a little while). Same thing to gas prices, oil, whatever energy source you desire (or all at once to keep folks from just switching energy sources). I'm sure it would result in changes in behavior (perhaps an increase in home solar arrays just to avoid such unpleasant surprises again, ha!).

 

[Grisu]

I suspect that if the behavior we want to modify is greater conservation, then raising energy prices is the way to go rather than outlawing any particular tech. Unfortunately such things are very unpopular - imagine adding a 50% 'tax' on electricity for example to really get folks to conserve more?

They are unpopular in the US. Many European countries already have switched their tax scheme to make energy more expensive while at the same time reducing income taxes, social security contribution etc. That an average European consumes 50% less energy than a typical US citizen can at least in part be explained by those political decisions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecotax

 

[Bret Chase]

I suspect that if the behavior we want to modify is greater conservation, then raising energy prices is the way to go rather than outlawing any particular tech. Unfortunately such things are very unpopular - imagine adding a 50% 'tax' on electricity for example to really get folks to conserve more? Likely if it stuck I would expect to see behaviors change a bit. Maybe not for everyone, but some folks would (at least for a little while). Same thing to gas prices, oil, whatever energy source you desire (or all at once to keep folks from just switching energy sources). I'm sure it would result in changes in behavior (perhaps an increase in home solar arrays just to avoid such unpleasant surprises again, ha!).

this already happens in a round about way.... I have easily cut my electrical usage in half, gas range, wood stove for heat, cfl's every where I can put them (I.e. non appliance lights). hell, my house only has a 100 service. yet my power bill keeps going up. why you ask? because my local utility goes crying to the PUC asking for rate hike after rate hike.... because their income has dropped drastically due to *decreased* energy usage!

 

[Where2]

this already happens in a round about way.... I have easily cut my electrical usage in half, gas range, wood stove for heat, cfl's every where I can put them (I.e. non appliance lights). My house only has a 100A service. yet my power bill keeps going up. why you ask? because my local utility goes crying to the PUC asking for rate hike after rate hike.... because their income has dropped drastically due to *decreased* energy usage!

If your power company pleadings to the PUC are public, it's usually quite eye opening to read them. Where I am, they hit us from all sides: Surcharges to fund engineering and permitting of "proposed" new power plants before they ever come on line, surcharges for hurricanes that happened 10 years ago and higher and higher rates every time the PUC says the company can apply for a rate change.

 

[Bret Chase]

If your power company pleadings to the PUC are public, it's usually quite eye opening to read them. Where I am, they hit us from all sides: Surcharges to fund engineering and permitting of "proposed" new power plants before they ever come on line, surcharges for hurricanes that happened 10 years ago and higher and higher rates every time the PUC says the company can apply for a rate change.

My utlility rode the coattails of the '98 ice storm for nearly a decade! Honestly... if an electrical grid wasn't part of the requirements of being "habitable", I'd probably just turn it off. Hell, my house was a century old when it got knob and tube installed...

 

[Ashful]

Sitting in the dark ain't much fun. How you gonna access hearth.com with no juice?

 

[Where2]

Sitting in the dark ain't much fun. How you gonna access hearth.com with no juice?

What?? An iPhone, iPad, Android-phone or tablet and a solar charging system can provide plenty of internet surf time... You just need a cell tower nearby and the iPad or tablet can work on the back 40 acres where the grid doesn't reach, if you bought the iPad or tablet that holds a SIM card for your local cell carrier.

No need to sit in the dark, plenty of "in-town" houses in Maine were plumbed for gas lighting, long before electricity came along. If Bret's home was a century old before knob and tube arrived, it probably still has plumbing for gas lighting in the ceilings.

I have to admit, when I think about houses from the 1800's, I expect it to be like Little House on the Prairie (set in the 1870s-1880s). My wife frequently reminds me one of the houses she used to live in was over 150 years old, and it was nothing like Little House on the Prairie. Many of the fixtures were simply "electrified" gas fixtures, some quite ornate, but probably not UL approved with little holographic stickers and country of origin details.

I have friends with some acreage outside Ely, MN with an off-grid home. I find them on the internet all the time!

 

[jebatty]

Ely is 200 miles NE of my home, fabulous area. And you are correct, a little solar will power almost everything needed.

Behavioral change is taking place. Power outages, major and frequent storm events, rising rates for electricity to fund repairs and additions to a woefully inadequate infrastructure power grid, and an electric power industry built on a failing business model. Forward thinking individuals realize that conservation not only benefits the environment on which we depend for our very lives, but also pays. Businesses are risk-savvy, and they are relocating, building and designing for a new future that conserves energy and water. The pieces already are visible and the puzzle solution is obvious. Those thinking and acting like dinosaurs will follow the dinosaur path to extinction.

 

[woodgeek]

On the contrary....I think 90% of folks will just keep doing/buying what their friends do, and what is offered by their friendly salesman as the best. And big business including utilities will happily adapt to the new ways of making power and money, including big solar.

The grid is here to stay.

 

[jebatty]

Forward thinking individuals realize that conservation not only benefits the environment on which we depend for our very lives, but also pays. Businesses are risk-savvy, and they are relocating, building and designing for a new future that conserves energy and water.

I'm surprised you disagree with this. You, and perhaps I, are forward thinking; I personally know of two others besides myself who have adopted solar PV for the reasons stated. Risk assessment is a major part of any business operation, and businesses are changing to avoid risks inherent in the current environment.

 

[woodgeek]

Fair enough....coffee just kicking in....sorry

The elec utilities are and will be at the forefront of the transition (at least more so than the oil majors and other fossil peddlers). Surely some of the less adaptable ones will go belly up and be forgotten by the time we get this RE party started. I think the future will be electric, and the grid will look a lot more like the current grid (at least in terms of hardware, if not operational modes) than many might suppose.

I would also take a bet on the average price of energy in 2050 being lower than it is now, but perhaps with a decent premium on liquid hydrocarbons from whatever source.

 

[Ashful]

Behavioral change is taking place. Power outages, major and frequent storm events, rising rates for electricity to fund repairs and additions to a woefully inadequate infrastructure power grid, and an electric power industry built on a failing business model... Those thinking and acting like dinosaurs will follow the dinosaur path to extinction.

My FIL spent most of his career as an executive VP of what was then the world's largest electric utility. He spent 15 years in the generation side of the business, and then 15 years in charge of the distribution side of the business. He was fortunate to retire early / golden parachute / whatever you want to call it. Not one to sit around, he went to work for Lockheed as a management consultant, where he was working with the group in charge of theater warfare computing development. He realized their Theater Battle Management System Core could be applied to electric utility grid management, as the current mode of grid failure management is currently just an enhanced version of that developed in prior to the 1970's, where operators look up error codes in books to determine how to route power around a failure in the system. The current system works very well for isolated failures, but since all combinations must be simulated / calculated in advance, only combinations of up to three failures are available for the operators to reference. The TBMSC system would provide constant real-time simulation of the most probable failures, based on the instantaneous state of the grid and outside conditions at all times, and could maintain a much larger database of failure corrective measurements than is currently possible.

Unfortunately, both Lockheed and the utility work off government regulated funding. They got stalled pushing the proposal thru congress, until the Great Northeast Blackout of 2003 happened, which would have been very much contained and prevented by the implementation of such a system. Suddenly, congress was interested in their proposal, but Lockheed could not respond to budgetary requests quickly enough, and there was a large turnover in the following election cycle. The issue fell flat on the following session, when Lockheed finally responded.

Point being... our grid is definitely antiquated, but perhaps for reasons other than you may suspect. The utilities, which are often maligned here, are not unwilling to update their grid for the sake of profit, but are slave to regulation that often completely inhibits advancement.

 

[woodgeek]

A couple more thoughts to stir the pot....

(1) It is clear that the consensus opinion among electricity industry analysts is that solar PV will become close to an arbitrage financial opportunity in the next few years, at least for selling power in the daytime cheaply and at a reasonable profit. The penny appears to have dropped in the last year or so, and it is now an 'open secret' the whole industry is preparing for. As you know, the great state of Minnesota is leading the way in terms of market and public policy planning for this scenario. I for one am fascinated to imagine how individuals will respond to pricing signals such as 'your elec power cost half as much during the day as at night', or perhaps a third if the night power is subjected to a carbon tax and the daytime is not. Is not hard to imagine many major loads like DHW tanks, appliances like dryers or dishwashers, EV chargers, and space heating thermostats getting rapidly reengineered with simple controllers to exploit these time of day rates (of course, AC is already there). How far can the PV/RE penetration get without a kWh of storage being deployed?

(2) of course, when all this goes down, the market for coal will likely be significantly altered/destroyed, but oil and nat gas will still be left standing. Cheap battery-equipped, low cost of ownership EVs will lead to demand destruction for gasoline use, and hopefully many in the developing world will skip the gasoline/ICE step altogether. Oil will be with us for a long time, but hopefully EVs can avoid the huge projected surge in future oil demand, and perhaps accommodate a modest rate of decline in global fossil oil production without breaking the economy. Natural gas? I think every country on earth that wants any heavy industry within its borders will go for shale gas. And the price of that gas will compete for customers with RE for the rest of our and our children's lives.

(3) Even at my most optimistic, I find it hard to believe we will see an 80+% reduction in CO2 emissions this century, as suggested by many analysts. 40%? Sure. No problem. Fortunately the Carbon Observatory II made it up last week, unlike the first one that crashed into the ocean. Right now we know the Earth absorbs ~40% of the carbon we emit, but we don't know exactly where it goes. A LOT relies on one bit of information...the curve of how CO2 we emit today gets absorbed over decades in the future AND whether these mechanisms get stronger as we increase the concentration of CO2 (the case for most chemical processes) or slower (e.g. if relying on forests that are being killed off by beetles in a warmer climate). And we really don't know. Hopefully we will in 10 years. In my dreams, these mechanisms get stronger linearly with increasing CO2, and a hard but very doable 50-60% reduction in emissions in the second half of the 21st century is enough to effectively flat-line the concentration of CO2, and avoid the worst of habitat destruction, extinctions, and ocean acidification.

(4) the wild card starting to be discussed is the idea that fossil energy reserves may be devalued massively during the transition, since they will have to be left in the ground. Will Exxon still be as valuable as Apple in 2030? It will certainly still exist, and I suppose move a similar amount of product, and have a similar cash flow, but it won't have the same projected future revenues, and will have higher market risk. I am sure it will adapt. I suppose many of the reserves are owned by sovereigns, not the majors, so geopolitics might be significantly altered, against the interests of the petro-states, including some friendly ones like Canada and Norway. Hmmm.

 

[Bret Chase]

What?? An iPhone, iPad, Android-phone or tablet and a solar charging system can provide plenty of internet surf time... You just need a cell tower nearby and the iPad or tablet can work on the back 40 acres where the grid doesn't reach, if you bought the iPad or tablet that holds a SIM card for your local cell carrier.

No need to sit in the dark, plenty of "in-town" houses in Maine were plumbed for gas lighting, long before electricity came along. If Bret's home was a century old before knob and tube arrived, it probably still has plumbing for gas lighting in the ceilings.

I have to admit, when I think about houses from the 1800's, I expect it to be like Little House on the Prairie (set in the 1870s-1880s). My wife frequently reminds me one of the houses she used to live in was over 150 years old, and it was nothing like Little House on the Prairie. Many of the fixtures were simply "electrified" gas fixtures, some quite ornate, but probably not UL approved with little holographic stickers and country of origin details.

I have friends with some acreage outside Ely, MN with an off-grid home. I find them on the internet all the time!

nope, no gaslight plumbing in the house. According to to my dad, my great-great uncle was far too cheap to have anything like that. the oldest part of my house was moved 5 miles now by oxen from where it was built, to where it sits now. (which was his father's land at the time) that was in or around 1865. I have never got the date nailed down. The house got knob and tube sometime during the heyday of the REA... somewhere in the 40's, most likely after the war. so, I amend my statement, my house was about 80 when it was electrified. I finally deactivated and removed the last of the knob and tube a couple of years ago.

Oil lamps were used for lighting here, which esp if you have an alladin mantle lamp... (my dad still has one) they are frickin bright!

my biggest electrical uses are laundry and pumping water. the water part is easy... windmill and a cistern in the top mow of the barn... it's how it was done in this area before electrification. laundry would be harder, but not impossible. lighting and most electrical use could easily be handled by a PV array and batteries. my house lies N/S and the east side just bakes in the sun all year... the wind blows out of the west constantly all winter, and keeps the east side of the roof clear of snow. water could be made hot by a gas heater supplemented/replaced by solar, esp in the summer. the fan I use to push air around the house in the winter could be replaced by a stirling cycle fan sitting on the stove.

as for going online.... I have in the past, during an outage, took the deep cycle battery out of my camper, hooked up an inverter, and powered the router, modem and the laptop chargers. IIRC, I got almost 24h of use out of it before I had to hook it to the truck to recharge it.